Brent crude to average $55/bbl in 2026 – EIA

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects Brent crude's price to average $55/bbl in 2026, down from a projected $69/bbl in 2025, though $3/bbl higher than its earlier estimate.

IMAGE: Getty Images

Despite the slight upward revision, Brent’s price is expected to remain under downward pressure in the coming months, largely due to the growth in global oil inventories and low seasonal demand, the EIA said in its latest oil market report.

“We forecast that growing global oil production and the transition to the low point of seasonal demand over the winter will accelerate the growth in global oil inventories, causing crude oil prices to continue to fall in the coming months," the report said.

The US energy agency expects global oil inventories to increase by an average of 2.2 million b/d in 2026, compared with an estimated annual average rise of 1.8 million b/d this year. The forecasts follow continued output increases by OPEC+ producers seeking to regain their market share. 

Inventory builds will be the highest in the fourth quarter of this year, averaging 2.7 million b/d, it said.

“Inventory builds will moderate later in 2026 due to a combination of higher global oil demand and slightly lower oil production growth, both in response to lower oil prices,” the energy agency said in its September short-term energy outlook (STEO) report.

Supply and demand estimates

Global liquid fuels production is expected to grow by 2.8 million b/d to reach 105.9 million b/d in 2025, about 100,000 b/d higher than the previous estimate, the EIA said.

Countries outside of OPEC+ are expected to increase total liquid fuels production by 1.5 million b/d in 2025 – 500,000 b/d lower than the EIA’s previous forecast. Brazil, Canada, Guyana and the US will lead in fuel production, the agency noted.

OPEC+ liquid fuels production is expected to average around 33.6 million b/d this year. The Saudi Arabia-led coalition will further increase production by another 200,000 b/d to reach 33.8 million b/d in 2026, the US-based agency projected.

“Forecast OPEC+ crude oil production increases by 0.5 million b/d [500,000 b/d] in both 2025 and 2026,” the EIA said, adding that the forecast is based on “assumption that production increases due to higher OPEC+ targets will moderate as the group aims to keep inventory builds from accelerating too quickly and pushing oil prices down further.”

The US energy agency forecasts global liquid fuels demand to grow by 1 million b/d in 2025 – about 100,000 b/d lower than its previous projection, to average 104 million b/d.

Demand will grow by another 1.1 million b/d in 2026, to average around and 105.2 million b/d, the EIA noted.

“Global liquid fuels consumption growth is driven almost entirely by non-OECD countries, which together grow by 1.1 million b/d in 2025 and 1.0 million b/d in 2026,” the US agency remarked.

By Aparupa Mazumder

Please get in touch with comments or additional info to news@engine.online