Brent crude to average $58/bbl in 2026 – EIA

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the Brent crude spot price to average around $58/bbl in 2026 – $2/bbl higher than its previous projection.

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Despite the small uptick, Brent's price is still expected to decline in the coming months, “as global oil production exceeds global oil demand, causing oil inventories to rise,” the agency said.

The US-based agency expects Brent crude’s price to average around $53/bbl in 2027 – about $1/bbl lower than its January estimates.

The US energy agency expects global oil inventories to increase by an average of 3.1 million b/d in 2026, compared with an average build of 2.7 million b/d in 2025, before declining to an average of 2.7 million b/d in 2027.

“Strong global oil production growth will continue to outpace oil consumption over our forecast, driving our assessment that global oil inventories will increase,” the energy agency said in its February short-term energy outlook (STEO) report.

Supply and demand estimates

Global liquid fuels production is expected to grow by 1.6 million b/d to reach 107.9 million b/d in 2026, the EIA said.

In 2027, total production is projected to grow by another 900,000 b/d to touch 108.8 million b/d.

“Global liquid fuels production growth is driven mostly by countries outside of OPEC+ in 2027 as we assume OPEC+ targets will remain at 2026 levels and the group’s production will increase only slightly next year,” the EIA said.

OPEC liquid fuels production is expected to average around 34.3 million b/d this year. The Saudi Arabia-led coalition is expected to further increase production to 34.6 million b/d in 2027, the US-based agency said.

The US energy agency forecasts global liquid fuels demand to grow by 1.2 million b/d in 2026 to average 104.8 million b/d.

Global liquid fuels consumption growth will be majorly driven by non-OECD countries, the EIA said. In China, total consumption is expected to increase by more than 200,000 b/d in 2026 and 2027.

Meanwhile, consumption in India is expected to increase by almost 300,000 b/d in both the years, the EIA noted.

Global demand is expected to grow by 1.3 million b/d in 2027, to average around 106.07 million b/d, according to the energy agency.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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