Brent crude to average $73/bbl in 2025 – Wood Mackenzie

Energy analytics firm Wood Mackenzie (WoodMac) has forecasted ICE Brent crude to average $73/bbl this year, citing various geopolitical and economic factors.

IMAGE: Oil barrels and a pump jack. Getty Images

WoodMac's price projection considers a range of geopolitical and economic factors, including a potential ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine that could see the US lifting its sanctions on Russian oil exports, with increased global oil supply as a result.

Sino-US trade tensions and tariff threats are also considered, as well as stricter sanctions against Iran that could cap its oil flows.

Global oil demand is expected to grow at a rate of 1.2 million b/d in this year, WoodMac projects. “Regional demand growth is expected to be led by Asia Pacific, with China and India as key drivers,” it said.

Meanwhile, non-OPEC production is expected to outpace demand, with a growth rate of 1.5 million b/d. “The robust growth in non-OPEC production means OPEC+ faces the challenge of carefully managing supply to maintain market stability,” WoodMac's vice president of oils research Ann-Louise Hittle said.

WoodMac expects the larger OPEC+ group to follow its current plan of gradually easing the ongoing 2.2 million b/d supply cuts between April 2025 and September 2026, depending on market conditions.

“The projected [Brent] price trajectory, declining from quarterly averages of $77.00/bbl in Q1 [the first quarter of 2025] to $70.00/bbl in Q4 [fourth quarter] 2025, underscores the delicate balance between supply and demand dynamics,” Hittle added.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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