Brent gains ahead of US-China trade talks

The front-month ICE Brent contract has increased by $1.04/bbl on the day, to trade at $62.76/bbl at 09.00 GMT.

IMAGE: Oil barrels. Getty Images

Upward pressure:

Brent crude’s price has continued to move higher on the back of fresh hopes of easing trade tensions between the two top global oil consumers - China and the US. Both countries are set to start trade talks over the weekend, according to media reports.

The talks are scheduled on 10-11 May. “[The] talks would be a sign of potential de-escalation in trade tensions,” two analysts from ING Bank noted.

Comments by President Donald Trump and US treasury secretary Scott Bessent have hinted at the potential talks, market analysts said.

“Yet while negotiations would help improve sentiment in the oil market, we’ll need to see significant progress on lowering tariffs to improve the demand outlook,” the ING Bank analysts argue.

On the demand side, US crude stocks data published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) also provided some upward thrust to Brent. US crude oil inventories declined by 4.5 million bbls in the week ending 2 May, according to the API.

The numbers were “fairly constructive,” the two analysts noted. A drop in US crude stocks typically indicates higher demand and can lend some support to Brent's price.

Downward pressure:

Oil market analysts don’t expect any major new changes in policy from the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later today.

Fed officials are set to meet to review this year’s interest rate outlook, though market participants widely anticipate that a rate cut is unlikely at this stage.

Higher interest rates could strengthen the US dollar, making dollar-denominated commodities like oil less attractive for holders of other currencies.

“Expectations are low - Powell is expected to deliver a polished version of ‘we’re on hold, watching the data’,” SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes said.

Aparupa Mazumder

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