Countdown to MEPC 81: Japan says post-2032 newbuilds should be zero-emission capable

All newbuild ships delivered after 2032 can be dual-fuel, but must be zero-emission fuel-capable to meet the IMO’s Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Strategy targets, Japan has written to the IMO.

PHOTO: Japanese container liner ONE has ordered 12 methanol-capable ships and gotten a design for an ammonia-capable vessel approved by DNV. Ocean Network Express

In its proposal to the 81st session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 81) proposal, the island nation submitted recommendations that also covered GHG Fuel Intensity (GFI) reduction efforts, a mid-term measure outlined in the IMO’s revised GHG Strategy that was adopted last year. 

GFI is the GHG intensity of energy on a well-to-wake basis. It is a technical measure that will be up for discussion at MEPC 81 next month, and which is a similar concept to the GHG intensity reduction that forms the base of the EU’s FuelEU Maritime regulation.

Japan’s recommendations are based on a study by the independent non-profit Japan Transport and Tourism Research Institute (JTTRI). The study examined GFI reduction efforts through alternative bunker fuels, and has identifies certain conditions that need to be met to achieve the IMO’s targets:

• All ships delivered after 2032 can be dual-fuel, but have to be able to run on fuels with zero-emission potential, like renewable methane, methanol or ammonia.
• Around 10-65 million mt, or 0.4-2.6 exajoules (EJ), of biofuel will be needed to fuel ships by 2030. This estimate assumes that ships running on conventional fuels will not be scrapped.
• Between 0.4-2.3 EJ of hydrogen-based fuels, including synthetic fuels, will be needed to achieve the goal.

Since large quantities of zero-emission fuels will be needed, an uptick in renewable energy production is necessary. The study estimates that “at least 200 million MWh will be needed by 2030, equivalent to the installation of approximately 2,900 new 20 MW wind turbines.”

The study sees a growing role for biofuels towards 2040 and assumes that biofuels will be available in large quantities globally. Up to 70 million mt of biofuels will be needed to power ships by 2040, it projects, which is a massive amount considering that biofuel demand across sectors totals around 40 million mt today.

It will be hard for the maritime sector to meet the IMO’s indicative 20-30% GHG emission reduction checkpoint for 2030 and 70-80% for 2040 without sufficient supply of biofuels and if transport demand is high across sectors, the study argues. It cites the World Bioenergy Association’s estimate that the world can max produce 80 EJ of biofuels by 2030 and 140 EJ by 2040 in this scenario.

Japan argues that when transport demand is high or when alternative fuels’ supply is insufficient, market-based measures (MBMs) or green shipping corridors can help achieve GFI ambitions.

MBMs refer to economic incentives for the maritime industry to reduce fuel consumption to offset ship emissions. The recently implemented EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), for instance, is an example of a market-based measure with a price to pay for carbon dioxide emissions.

By Manjula Nair

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