EIA: Brazil, Guyana, Argentina to drive non-OPEC output in 2026

Non-OPEC crude oil production in 2026 will be led by Brazil, Guyana and Argentina, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has predicted.

IMAGE: Flags of Brazil, Guyana and Argentina. ENGINE via GeminiAI

According to the US energy watchdog’s December oil market analysis, total crude oil production is expected to rise by 800,000 b/d next year. Of this increase, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina are projected to account for about half, or about 400,000 b/d, emerging as the key drivers of non-OPEC supply growth in 2026.

Brazil’s crude output is expected to rise next year as new offshore pre-salt projects come online, including Norway-based energy company Equinor’s Bacalhau field, slated to start up in October.

Two additional FPSOs, operated by Brazil’s state-owned bunker supplier Petrobras, will also kick-start production in December, increasing Brazil’s total production by 200,000 b/d in 2026 to about 4 million b/d, the EIA has projected.

Guyana’s oil output is expected to surge as Exxon Mobil and its partners ramp up development of the Stabroek Block. “Guyana is increasingly exporting oil to markets in Asia to meet demand previously served by other exporting countries,” the EIA said.

The agency expects Guyana’s crude oil production to average 140,000 b/d in 2026. The start-up of the Uaru project in 2026 is expected to add about 250,000 b/d, pushing Guyana’s total output over 1 million b/d by 2027.

Argentina is projected to record notable output gains in 2026, with growth primarily underpinned by its Vaca Muerta shale formation, the EIA said. Growth from Vaca Muerta has made Argentina "the fourth-largest oil producing country in South America [in 2025],” the energy agency added.

Argentina’s oil production is expected to average 810,000 b/d in 2026, up from 740,000 b/d in 2025 and 670,000 b/d in 2024.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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