EIA cuts Brent’s price forecast to $68/bbl in 2025
Uncertainty around the global oil demand affected by trade policies and the potential for additional OPEC+ supply in the coming months will keep Brent's price below the $70/bbl mark in 2025, the EIA said in its latest oil market report.
IMAGE: Oil barrels and the world map. Getty Images
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that the Brent crude's spot price will average around $68/bbl in 2025 – about $6/bbl lower than its previous monthly forecast – and fall by another $7/bbl to an average of $61/bbl in 2026.
The revised forecast comes amid escalating trade tensions between the US and other nations, especially China – the world’s second-largest crude oil consumer, after Washington imposed 10% base tariffs on all trade partners.
The news has reflected more uncertainty around global oil demand growth, according to the EIA. “We expect that prices for crude oil and other commodities will continue to experience significant volatility as market participants assess the effects of trade policies,” the EIA said.
Moreover, the “gradual and flexible” return of the 2.2 million b/d of crude oil committed by OPEC+ producers, coupled with continued supply growth from producers outside of the OPEC+ agreement, primarily in the US, is expected to add downward pressure on Brent’s price in 2025 and 2026, the EIA said in its April short-term energy outlook (STEO) report.
“However, factors including existing sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela create additional uncertainty for crude oil prices,” the energy agency remarked.
Supply and demand estimates
The gradual growth in oil production by OPEC+ members will lead to an average of 700,000 b/d increase in global oil inventories in the second half of this year, “and inventories will continue to accumulate at that pace in 2026,” the US agency said.
Global liquid fuels and petroleum production is expected to reach about 104.1 million b/d in 2025, the EIA said. Countries that are not part of the OPEC+ agreement will also contribute to the global liquid fuels production growth in 2025 and 2026, it added. Production growth from non-OPEC+ countries, including the US, Canada, Brazil and Guyana will be the main drivers of growth.
The US energy agency forecasts global oil demand to grow by 900,000 b/d to average 103.6 million b/d in 2025, and by 1 million b/d to average 104.7 million b/d in 2026. These revised projections are about 400,000 b/d and 100,000 b/d less than the previous estimates, respectively.
“Oil consumption in our forecast continues to be below its pre-pandemic trend,” the EIA said. “Recently announced trade policies mean the uncertainty around global oil demand growth has risen significantly,” it added.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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