EIA raises global oil demand forecasts for 2023, 2024

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its global oil demand forecast by 400,000 b/d for each of 2023 and 2024 in its latest shor-term outlook.

PHOTO: Getty Images

Global liquid fuel consumption is forecast to increase from 99.4 million b/d in 2022 to 100.9 million b/d in 2023, and by an additional 1.8 million b/d to 102.7 million b/d in 2024.

“We expect China will account for about half of the growth in global liquid fuels consumption in 2023,” the EIA said in its outlook. China is expected to consume 15.86 million b/d of crude oil this year, which is 700,000 b/d higher than the EIA’s previous forecast.

The Brent spot price is predicted to average $84/bbl in the first half of this year, a downgrade of $1/bbl from the EIA's forecast last month. Brent is projected to drop further to average $82/bbl in the second half of 2023 and average even lower at $78/bbl in 2024. A rise in global oil production will lead to inventory build-ups, keeping the Brent spot price in check, the EIA said.

Global liquid fuel production is now projected to to rise from 100 million b/d in 2022, to 101.6 million b/d this year - a 500,000 b/d upward revision from the EIA's forecast in February. The EIA has also raised its forecast for next year, by 100,000 b/d to 101.6 million b/d.

Russian crude oil production is expected to drop by 700,000 b/d in March, which would outweigh the Kremlin's planned 500,000 b/d cut. However, the EIA now expects Russia to produce 400,000 b/d more oil across the whole of 2023 than it previously did, and attributes this to recent Russian oil exports exceeding expectations.

By Konica Bhatt

Please get in touch with comments or additional info to news@engine.online