EIA updates OPEC production capacity estimates
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its core assumption regarding the production capacity of OPEC – the world’s largest oil-producing group.
IMAGE: Oil storage tanks. Getty Images
Saudi Arabia-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) can produce more crude oil than previously thought, the EIA said.
The US-based agency now estimates OPEC’s effective production capacity was higher by about 220,000 b/d in 2024, 370,000 b/d in 2025, and 310,000 b/d in 2026 compared with its earlier assessments.
The revision was not driven by renewed drilling activity or supply hikes, rather by a reassessment of how “capacity” is defined.
The EIA has refined its supply framework by distinguishing between maximum sustainable capacity and effective production capacity. While the former represents a producer’s theoretical output ceiling under ideal conditions, the latter reflects the volume that can be brought online within 90 days and sustained safely – a measure the agency uses to gauge how much supply is realistically available to respond to market shocks.
“Surplus production capacity—sometimes called spare capacity—describes the available production capacity held back as part of a coordinated agreement,” the EIA said.
The US agency now assesses OPEC’s supply cushion to be larger than earlier estimates. Since its projections for actual OPEC output were largely unchanged, the adjustment translated almost entirely into an upward revision of the group’s spare capacity.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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