FIS: Tanker Market Overview: Waning sentiment in oil tanker market
Positivity appears to be waning for the smaller clean tankers in the West.
MRs in the USG came under downward pressure in the spot market, dropping almost 50 points from this time last week, before some recovery on Monday.
Earnings dropped for owners, to a still rosy (compared to previous years) TCE of 35,500 USD per day.
TC6 has now halved in value in the spot market from the end of June (27/06 @ WS505.94) to WS250 on 18/07.
Although some recovery has been seen in the UKC, TC2 has remained relatively flat with surplus tonnage continuing to dampen rates.
In line with a fall in rates, we have seen less volume trading on the FFAs, with the CPP routes reportedly trading 2,427 lots less than the week before.
VLCC rates continue to rise, with the spot market making further gains to $58.68 (as per the Baltic 18/07). As a result, owners now reportedly almost breaking even - with the Baltic currently assessing a TCE on TD3C round trip of just minus $700 per day. Further improvements were seen throughout the curve – with TD3C Cal23 trading up to recent highs of $11.10/mt (from lows seen earlier in the year of $9.60/mt) and Q4 now being assessed at WS65.31 as per the Baltic closing marks on 18/07, a year high!
TD20 (130kt West Africa/UKC route) saw more improvements in the spot market, returning to 138ws levels (a round-trip TCE over $30,000 per day). More volume has been seen trading on TD20 this week, with Cal23 improving week on week with the last trade yesterday up to $16.00/mt.
Technical view of the Tanker Market: TD3C
August Futures – technically bullish with downside moves considered as countertrend last week.
The futures were starting to look overextended, however, the futures have continued to move higher with price trading above our USD 12.0400 upper resistance level.
Technically bullish with downside moves considered as countertrend.
Near-term resistance is now between USD 12.3890 and USD 12.8388. Corrective moves lower that hold at or above USD 10.3478 will support a bull argument. Below this level the technical will have a neutral bias.
Written by Titus Zheng Shujian and Edward Hutton, Edited by Chris Hudson (https://freightinvestorservices.com/fis-live/).
