Fuel Switch Snapshot: Pooling drop reshuffles fuel economics

Singapore B100 back to discount to LSMGO

LBM $4/mt costlier than B100 for vessels with Otto MS engines

LBM at $16-182/mt premiums over HSFO

All bunker prices described in the text below have been adjusted for calorific content to make them VLSFO-equivalent. They have estimated EU-EU voyage compliance costs included for Rotterdam, and nonEU-EU compliance costs included for Singapore. These account for EU ETS costs and FuelEU Maritime penalties, and the average price of compliance surpluses we have picked up from the FuelEU pooling market over the past week.

B100 and liquefied biomethane (LBM) remain cheaper than LSMGO in Rotterdam, and B100 does so in Singapore too. But weaker pooling economics have reduced their competitiveness against other conventional fuels, eroding their appeal as the most affordable alternatives with EU regulatory benefits.

A €12.85/mtCO2e ($15/mtCO2e) weekly drop to €118.90/mtCO2e ($138/mtCO2e) in OceanScore's FuelEU pooling index has reduced the pooling benefits for B100 and LBM.

ENGINE-assessed FuelEU Maritime pooling values for B100 have fallen by $39/mt for EU-EU voyages and $19/mt for EU-nonEU voyages over the past week.

B100's discount to LSMGO in Rotterdam has widened by $8/mt to $461/mt, while in Singapore the fuel has flipped from a $10/mt premium to a $31/mt discount.

Against VLSFO, however, B100 has become less competitive in both ports. Its premiums have widened by $5/mt to $52/mt in Rotterdam and by $61/mt to $322/mt in Singapore over the same period.

LBM has followed a similar pattern. Its pooling values on EU-EU voyages have fallen by $54-63/mt over the past week.

For dual-fuel shipowners, LBM remains cheaper than LSMGO, although the spread has narrowed by $99-108/mt to $458-624/mt.

Against other conventional fuels, the economics are less favourable. LBM has flipped from a $57/mt discount to VLSFO to a $56/mt premium for vessels with Otto medium-speed (Otto MS) engines. For vessels with diesel slow-speed (diesel SS) engines, LBM holds a discount to VLSFO, but this has narrowed by $121/mt to $110/mt.

LBM is also more expensive than HSFO in Rotterdam, priced at a $182/mt premium for vessels with Otto MS engines and a $16/mt premium for those with diesel SS engines.

It has flipped from a $103/mt discount to a $4/mt premium over B100 for vessels with Otto MS engines, although the two fuels typically cater to different vessel types and are not directly comparable.

Liquid fuels

Rotterdam's conventional fuel prices have gained $15-28/mt over the past week. The port's B100 price has risen by $20/mt.

Conventional marine fuel availability is tight for prompt supplies in the ARA, with buyers advised lead times of 5-7 days to get good coverage from suppliers, a trader said.

Singapore's HSFO and LSMGO prices have gained $34/mt and $69/mt respectively, while VLSFO has declined by $33/mt.

VLSFO's decline came despite ICE Brent futures gaining $4.66/bbl ($34/mt) to $89.05/bbl ($653/mt) over the same period. B100 in Singapore has surged by $28/mt.

VLSFO availability in Singapore remains tight, and suppliers recommend lead times of 12-21 days. HSFO is also tight, with recommended lead times of 12-21 days, while LSMGO lead times range from 4-12 days.

Liquid gases

Rotterdam's LNG prices have gained $68-77/mt, depending on engine type, and LBM prices have shot up by an even greater $127-136/mt.

LBM’s discount to LNG in Rotterdam has narrowed by $59/mt to $241-249/mt over the past week.

Singapore's LNG prices have inched up by $2-6/mt over the same period.

By Konica Bhatt

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