IEA cuts global oil demand growth forecast to 1.2 million b/d for 2024
The Paris-based energy agency expects global oil demand growth to decline from 2.3 million b/d in 2023 to 1.2 million b/d this year, 100,000 b/d lower than its last month’s projection.
PHOTO: Oil barrels and pump jack. Getty Images
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global oil demand growth to further lose momentum in 2025 to 1.1 million b/d as post-COVID recovery is "now largely complete, and vehicle efficiencies and an expanding EV fleet acting as further drags on oil demand".
Non-OECD group of countries including China and India, are expected to account for a major share of oil demand growth over the next two years. In the OECD group of developed countries, oil consumption is expected to decline by 60,000 b/d in both years.
“China continues to lead the growth even as its share of the global increase slumps from 79% in 2023 to 45% in 2024 and 27% next year”, the energy agency said in its monthly Oil Market Report (OMR).
Supply forecast
The IEA expects global oil output to grow by 770,000 b/d to 102.9 million b/d in 2024, with non-OPEC countries including the US, Guyana, Brazil, and Canada leading the production.
“OPEC+ supply is projected to fall by 820,000 b/d, provided cuts are maintained through the second half of the year,” it said.
In 2025, global oil supply is expected to grow by 1.6 million b/d to a new record of 104.5 million b/d, as non-OPEC+ producers will lead gains “for a third straight year,” it added.
Heightened tension between Iran and Israel, attacks on Russian energy facilities, and an extension of OPEC+ output cuts in the second quarter of this year have put upward pressure on Brent's price, with the benchmark hitting a six-month high of $90/bbl in early April, the IEA said.
“Crude’s price strength was underpinned by bullish investor sentiment, with exchange net fund positions in Brent rising to their highest in a year,” the IEA added.
The agency anticipates global refinery crude throughputs to average 83.3 million b/d in 2024, 160,000 b/d lower than the previous month’s projection.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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