IEA trims global oil demand growth forecast for 2026
Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) now expects global oil demand to grow by 850,000 b/d in 2026 - about 80,000 b/d lower than its previous estimate.
IMAGE: An oil pumpjack pictured at dusk. Getty Images
The IEA said global oil demand growth is set to exceed the 770,000 b/d increase recorded in 2025 but stopped short of providing an average forecast for the scale of the rise.
As in the previous year, growth in oil demand in 2026 will be driven by non-OECD countries, according to the IEA. China is expected to be the largest contributor to demand growth.
Even so, the agency expects global oil demand to remain well below oil production levels, the Paris-based agency said.
“World oil demand growth for 2026 has been revised moderately lower to 850 kb/d [850,000 b/d] as economic uncertainties and higher oil prices weigh on consumption,” the IEA said.
Supply forecast
In January, global oil supply decreased by 1.2 million b/d from December levels to about 106.6 million b/d, the IEA noted in its monthly Oil Market Report (OMR).
The supply drop was driven by severe winter weather that disrupted operations across the US, the energy agency said, adding that outages and export constraints also reduced flows from Kazakhstan, Russia and Venezuela.
Russian supply largely declined in January – by about 350,000 b/d – as its key customers came under increased pressure from Washington and broader EU sanctions, the IEA noted.
“Shipments to India have been hit particularly hard as fresh EU restrictions on imports of petroleum products derived from Russian crude prompted key export refineries to look for alternative supplies,” the agency added.
However, Russian crude supply to China “surged to an all-time high” in January, according to the IEA.
Venezuelan crude production fell by around 210,000 b/d month-on-month to 780,000 b/d in January, the IEA said.
The energy agency now projects global oil supply to grow by 2.4 million b/d to average 108.6 million b/d in 2026, “with growth roughly evenly split between non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ producers."
By Aparupa Mazumder
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