MEPC 80: Has the IMO actually aligned the shipping industry with the Paris Agreement?

The IEA claims the IMO's revised GHG strategy is in line with the Paris Agreement. But interim targets suggest that is not entirely accurate.

PHOTO: Getty Images

The International Maritime Organisation's (IMO) 2023 greenhouse gas (GHG) strategy has been the focus of a heated debate: is the revised strategy so ambitious that it supports shipping to shoulder its share of emissions reductions for the world to be on track to meet the Paris Agreement goals?

The ambiguity is further complicated by a recent comment from the International Energy Agency (IEA). It says the IMO's revised emission reduction targets "are now in line with the Paris Agreement", but that shipping will need "legally binding measures" to get on a course to net zero by 2050.

The IEA's reasoning for believing that IMO’s 2023 GHG strategy is aligned with the Paris Agreement can be found in the keywords of the agreement. According to the Paris Agreement, all nations must “substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to limit the global temperature increase in this century to 2 degrees Celsius while pursuing efforts to limit the increase even further to 1.5 degrees.”

The IEA’s comment has most likely focused on limiting the global temperature rise this century to 2°C rather than 1.5°C, which is what the Paris Agreement signatories will "strive" for. The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) has pointed out the discrepancy between these two aims.

"Under the revised (2023) strategy, we’re set to exceed the 1.5°C budget by approximately 2032 under either the 20% or 30% (striving) target; however, if shipping can get to zero WTW CO2e emissions by 2050 along this pathway, it will not exceed its well below 2°C budget," ICCT researchers Bryan Comer and Francielle Carvalho argued earlier this week.

It simply means that, despite the IMO's revised and interim targets, maritime emissions are unlikely to decline enough to limit global warming to 1.5°C by the end of this century. The ICCT, however, believes that there is still hope that global warming will remain below 2°C – but only if maritime well-to-wake emissions are completely phased out by 2050.

When it comes to zero absolute emissions by 2050, the IEA has raised eyebrows, arguing that direct mandates and “legally binding” market-based measures are essential to ensure that alternative bunker infrastructure will be built and to boost uptake of zero-emission fuels.

This uncertainty may be because the IMO’s targets are not legally binding but rather serve as guidelines for member states to implement measures to meet them. Market-based measures, on the other hand - such as the Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI) and the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII), that came into force this year - are mandated throughout the global shipping industry.

To silence naysayers and put the sector on track to phase out maritime emissions "by or around 2050", the IMO has discussed two crucial economic and technical measures: GHG levy and a GHG fuel standard. The shipping sector's Paris-alignment, however, remains blurred by the fine print until these measures can be adopted in 2025, and implemented in 2027.

By Konica Bhatt

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