Muted oil outlook for 2026 – survey

A survey by the US Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has highlighted a persistent sense of pessimism in the global oil market.

IMAGE: Oil storage facility. Getty Images

According to the survey, oil industry executives anticipate a persistent sense of pessimism in the global oil market, due to softer activity amid weak oil prices.

Activity in the oil sector has “edged lower” in the fourth quarter of this year, executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey said.

Oil production was “little changed in the fourth quarter,” according to executives at exploration and production firms.

The oil market is expected to remain depressed in the upcoming year, the survey findings indicate, with respondents forecasting prices at around $62/bbl by the end of 2026.

Analysts warn of deeper surplus in 2026

According to oil market analysts, a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict – brokered by the Donald Trump-led US administration – could further deepen the existing market surplus next year, as eased Western sanctions allow more Russian energy exports to return to global supply.

“We continue to hold onto our bearish outlook for the oil market in 2026,” ING Bank’s head of commodities strategy Warren Patterson said earlier.

“Our balance sheet shows that the surplus in the oil market is set to grow in 2026,” he added.

Conversely, if restrictions on Russian exports remain in place and supply from Iran and Venezuela stays constrained, the market could move closer to balance.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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