NOAA sees fewer Atlantic storms, lowering risk of short-term bunker delays
NOAA's National Weather Service has assigned a 55% probability to a below-normal season during the Atlantic hurricane period, which runs from 1 June to 30 November.
IMAGE: A NOAA satellite view of Hurricane Erin off the US East Coast. NOAA Satellites.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, potentially easing disruption risks for bunkering operations across key bunkering hubs in the US Gulf Coast, East Coast, and Caribbean.
The agency expects 8-14 named storms this year. Of these, 3-6 are forecast to strengthen into hurricanes, including 1-3 major hurricanes.
A trader tells ENGINE that, if NOAA's forecast proves accurate, the lower-than-average number of storms is likely to result in fewer short-term delays to port and bunkering operations in the US Gulf.
"Major storms look to be about the normal amount, so if that gets up to three, it could cause major delays in the region," the trader said.
The trader noted that tropical depressions, tropical waves, and weaker storm systems typically cause only limited bunkering and operational disruptions, often lasting a few hours.
However, once storms strengthen into hurricanes, ports may suspend operations from roughly one day before landfall until about one day after the storm passes.
Major hurricanes can result in much longer interruptions.
"If it's a major hurricane, delays could last several days after the storm and, depending on any damage to infrastructure, potentially even longer," the trader added.
NOAA expects competing influences to result in a less active hurricane season than usual, while El Niño is expected to develop and strengthen during the season, a pattern that typically suppresses tropical storm and hurricane formation in the Atlantic.
Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to remain slightly above average, and trade winds are likely to be weaker than normal, both of which favour tropical cyclone development.
By Gautamee Hazarika
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