OPEC cuts oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has lowered its oil demand growth forecast to 1.3 million b/d for 2025 and 2026.

IMAGE: Flag of OPEC. Getty Images

Global oil consumption in 2025 is expected to average 105.05 million b/d, OPEC said. Of this, 45.74 million b/d will be used by OECD countries, about 60,000 b/d less than last year.

“Global oil demand growth for 2025 is revised down to 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y [1.3 million b/d year-on-year], to reflect data received for 1Q25 [first quarter of 2025], as well as recently announced US tariff,” OPEC said in a statement.

The coalition has kept demand growth expectations in non-OECD countries at around 1.3 million b/d, reaching 59.3 million b/d this year. The demand growth is mostly driven by requirements from China, in addition to Other Asia, India, the Middle East and Latin America, the Saudi Arabia-led coalition added.

Oil demand growth in 2026 is expected to decline further on account of the expected impact of US tariffs, OPEC said. Global oil consumption in 2026 is expected to average 106.3 million b/d, OPEC said.

OPEC has maintained demand growth forecast for its crude at 42.6 million b/d in 2025 and around 42.8 million b/d in 2026.

Supply estimates

Total crude oil production by OPEC+ members averaged 41.02 million b/d in March 2025, about 37,000 b/d lower than the previous month.

Oil production in Saudi Arabia and Iran, two of the largest producers of the group, increased by 4,000 b/d to about 9 million b/d and 12,000 b/d to about 3.3 million b/d, respectively, in March.

Output in Kazakhstan surged by 37,000 b/d, the Vienna-headquartered group said. Meanwhile, Russia cut production by 10,000 b/d.

The coalition comprises the core 12 OPEC member countries, along with Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia and Sudan.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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