OPEC forecasts global oil demand to rise through 2050
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has forecast global oil demand to reach 113.3 million b/d by the end of this decade.
IMAGE: OPEC's logo. Getty Images
Global energy demand will continue to expand in the coming years, “with no peak in oil demand on the horizon,” OPEC estimated.
Oil demand is set to reach 124.1 million b/d in 2050 – translating into demand growth of 19 million b/d over the entire outlook period. “From now until 2050, we see it increasing by 23%, with growth almost entirely coming from developing countries,” it said.
Non-OECD countries are expected to account for most of this growth, with demand rising by 7.4 million b/d between 2025 and 2030, and 26.9 million b/d through 2050, OPEC said.
OPEC projects India, Africa, the Middle East and other Asian countries to be the key drivers of long-term oil demand growth. Demand in these regions is set to increase by 25.2 million b/d between 2025 and 2050, with India alone adding 8.1 million b/d.
Meanwhile, demand from OECD nations is projected to expand by 700,000 b/d by the end of this decade and about 8 million b/d during the entire forecast period, the Vienna-headquartered group said.
“For oil alone, investments of $17.7 trillion from 2026 to 2050 – or over $700 billion per annum – are needed to meet demand in the long term,” OPEC’s Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said in the group’s latest World Oil Outlook (WOO).
Supply projections
Total liquid fuels supply from OPEC members within the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) is projected to grow from 50.6 million b/d in 2025 to 64.5 million b/d in 2050, OPEC said.
“This implies an increase in market share from 48% in 2025 to 52% in 2050,” the Saudi Arabia-led oil producers’ group said.
Non-DoC liquids production is expected to grow by about 4.1 million b/d to 58.2 million b/d in 2030. The primary source of non-DoC production growth will be Brazil, Qatar, the US, Argentina and Canada, OPEC said.
By 2050, non-DoC liquids supply is projected to average 59.6 million b/d. “Canada and Argentina stand out among non-DoC producers as countries where supply is forecast to continue to increase even in the long term,” OPEC said.
The DoC comprises the core OPEC member countries, along with Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, and Sudan. Together, these countries form the group, also commonly known as OPEC+.
Leading non-DOC producers include the US, Canada, Brazil, Qatar, Norway and Argentina.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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