OPEC keeps oil demand growth forecast steady
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has maintained its global oil demand growth projection for 2026 at 1.4 million b/d.
IMAGE: Oil storage facility. Getty Images
OPEC has left its global oil demand forecast largely unchanged at 106.53 million b/d for the year, including about 46.07 million b/d from OECD economies.
OPEC has forecast oil demand from non-OECD countries to average around 60.46 million b/d this year – about 20,000 b/d higher than its March projection.
“Oil demand in the OECD in 2026 is projected to grow by about 0.1 mb/d [100,000 b/d], with the Americas leading growth and some additional support from OECD Europe, while oil demand in OECD AsiaPacific is projected to slightly decline,” OPEC said.
In the non-OECD region, oil demand is expected to see a “healthy growth” of 1.3 million b/d this year, driven by consumption in China, India and other Asian countries.
Global oil consumption in 2027 is expected to grow by about 1.3 million b/d, to average 107.9 million b/d – unchanged from OPEC’s previous projection.
OPEC sees demand growth for its crude at 42.9 million b/d for 2026. It expects demand for its crude to grow by 600,000 b/d to reach 43.6 million b/d next year.
Supply estimates
Total crude oil production by OPEC+ members averaged 35.06 million b/d last month, about 770,000 b/d lower than in February, OPEC said.
Oil production in the group’s de-facto leader Saudi Arabia declined by about 2.3 million b/d in March to about 7.8 million b/d. The coalition’s second-largest producer Iraq cut production by 2.6 million b/d in March to about 1.6 million b/d.
The decline in production came amid the ongoing hostilities in the Middle East region, with cross-border firing directly targeting the region’s highly valued energy assets.
The UAE and Kuwait – two founding members – reduced production by 1.5 million b/d and 1.4 million b/d to 1.9 million b/d and 1.2 million b/d respectively.
Meanwhile, oil production in Kazakhstan increased by 251,000 b/d to about 1.7 million b/d, OPEC said.
The Vienna-headquartered coalition has hiked its non-OPEC production growth forecast by 600,000 b/d, with output expected to average around 54.8 million b/d this year.
“The main drivers of liquids production growth are expected to be Brazil, the US, Canada and Argentina,” it said.
The OPEC+ coalition comprise of the core 12 OPEC member countries, along with Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia and Sudan.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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