OPEC keeps oil demand growth forecast unchanged
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has kept its global oil demand growth projection for 2026 unchanged at 200,000 b/d, in line with its previous estimate.
IMAGE: Oil storage tanks. Getty Images
OPEC has kept its global oil demand forecast unchanged in November, following six consecutive downward revisions, amid persistent Middle East hostilities that continue to reshape global energy demand.
OPEC expects global oil demand to reach 105.72 million b/d in 2026, including about 46.10 million b/d from OECD economies, it said in its November oil market report.
OPEC has forecast oil demand from non-OECD countries to average around 59.62 million b/d this year – about 20,000 b/d higher than its previous projection.
“The OECD oil demand is forecast to ease by about 0.2 mb/d [200,000 b/d] in 2026, while the non-OECD oil demand is forecast to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, y-o-y, [400,000 b/d year-on-year]” OPEC said.
Global oil consumption in 2027 is expected to grow by 2.6 million b/d, to average 108.28 million b/d – the same as OPEC’s October projection.
Demand for OPEC+ crude is forecast to average 42.1 million b/d this year – matching estimates of the previous month’s projection. OPEC expects demand for OPEC+ crude to reach 43.9 million b/d next year.
Supply estimates
Total crude oil production by OPEC+ members averaged 41.23 million b/d last month, about 2.04 million b/d higher than in September.
Saudi Arabia and Iraq ramped up oil production by 1.2 million b/d and 496,000 b/d last month, to about 9.2 million b/d and 4.5 million b/d, respectively.
OPEC member Kuwait hiked production by 232,000 b/d last month, to about 2 million b/d. OPEC+ member Russia hiked production by 41,000 b/d to about 8.7 million b/d.
Meanwhile, Iran and Nigeria slashed production by 44,000 b/d and 27,000 b/d last month, to about 1.9 million b/d and 1.5 million b/d, respectively.
OPEC expects liquids production from countries outside OPEC+ to grow by 600,000 b/d, with output expected to average around 54.8 million b/d this year – matching its previous estimate.
“The main liquids production growth drivers are set to be Brazil, the US, Canada and Argentina,” it said.
The OPEC+ coalition comprise of the core 12 OPEC member countries, along with Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, Sudan and South Sudan.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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