OPEC maintains 2022 world oil demand forecast, warns against downward risks

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has maintained its forecast for world oil demand to average at 100.2 million b/d this year, up by 3.36 million b/d from 2021.

OPEC forecasts a demand recovery back to pre-pandemic levels, while saying knock-on effects from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a resurgence of Covid-19 cases in China could hold back demand.

Renewed lockdown measures in parts of Shanghai and mass testing in Beijing could cap oil demand in the world’s biggest oil-importing country. But demand could quickly rebound if the virus is contained.

OPEC forecasts China’s oil demand to grow by 370,00 b/d on the year, to 15.31 million b/d in 2022.

The global demand forecast also factors in inflationary pressures, which pose a risk to a recovery.

“Inflationary pressures are likely to persist and it remains highly uncertain as to when geopolitical issues may be resolved. Nevertheless, oil demand is forecast at healthy levels in the second half of this year,” OPEC says.

It sees demand for OPEC crude oil to average at 29.2 million b/d this year, up by 100,000 b/d from its previous estimate.

The oil group has lowered its estimate for non-OPEC supply by 230,000 b/d to 65.74 million b/d, mainly because of a downward revision in Russian liquids output.

Total liquids production from Russia is now estimated at 10.63 million b/d for this year, lower by 250,000 b/d from the May projection.