OPEC maintains oil demand growth forecast at 2.2 million b/d for 2024
Global oil demand is expected to reach 104.5 million b/d this year, broadly unchanged from OPEC's previous month's assessment.
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In its May oil market report (MOMR), the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) kept its global oil demand growth forecast unchanged – at 2.2 million b/d this year.
Non-OECD countries, including China and India, are expected to boost oil demand growth in 2024. Their combined oil demand is expected to increase by about 2 million b/d to reach 58.4 million b/d in 2024.
Oil demand in the OECD group of developed countries is expected to reach 46.02 million b/d in 2024, led by demand growth in the US, OPEC said.
The Vienna-headquartered group maintained its global oil demand growth projection of 1.8 million b/d in 2025 to reach 106.3 million b/d.
OPEC-core members produced 26.58 million b/d of crude oil in April, down by 48,000 b/d from March production levels. Production from non-OPEC countries, which includes members of the OPEC+ alliance or participants in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), fell by 198,000 b/d to 14.44 million b/d in April.
“Going forward, the MOMR will focus on 'demand for DoC crude' instead of the usual demand for OPEC crude,” it said in its flagship report. "With this, the MOMR’s section on ‘balance of supply and demand’ will now only report ‘demand for DoC crude'," it noted. Indicating a shift to broader OPEC+ reporting.
Crude oil production in Russia, a non-OPEC DoC producer, fell by 154,000 b/d to 9.29 million b/d in April, according to the report.
Supply projections
The oil-producers group expects non-DoC liquid supply to grow by 1.2 million b/d this year, unchanged from its previous assessment.
OPEC expects the US, Canada, Brazil, and Norway to be the main drivers for liquid supply growth in 2024. “US liquids supply growth for 2024 is estimated at 400,000 b/d,” OPEC said.
The DoC comprises the core 12 OPEC member countries, along with Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, and Sudan. Together, these countries form the group also known as OPEC+.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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