OPEC maintains oil demand growth forecast at 2.2 million b/d for 2024
The oil-producers group OPEC has kept its oil demand growth forecast steady at 2.2 million b/d to 104.5 million b/d in 2024, unchanged from its previous month's assessment.
PHOTO: Black barrels of oil. Getty Images
Global oil demand in the second half of this year is expected to pick up in Europe and the Asia Pacific region due to increased demand for air and road travel and improving economic activities, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its July oil market report (MOMR).
The Saudi Arabia-led coalition anticipates oil demand in the non-OECD countries, including China and India, to be around 2.1 million b/d to reach 58.6 million b/d in 2024, while in the OECD group of developed countries, demand is expected to reach 45.8 million b/d this year.
OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth projection of 1.8 million b/d in 2025 to reach 106.3 million b/d.
Demand for crude produced by the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) is expected to stand at about 43.1 million b/d in 2024, slightly down by 100,000 b/d from the previous month’s estimates.
This downward revision is primarily “due to higher supply historical data,” the Vienna-headquartered group said.
Supply projections
The 12 core-OPEC members produced 26.57 million b/d of crude oil in June, about 80,000 b/d lower than May’s production levels. “Crude oil output increased mainly in Libya, Venezuela and Iran, while production in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE decreased,” OPEC said.
Total production from OPEC members within the DoC fell by 125,000 b/d in June to 40.8 million b/d, while non-OPEC countries, which include members of the OPEC+ alliance or participants in the DoC, fell by 45,000 b/d to 14.24 million b/d in June.
Crude oil output primarily increased in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, OPEC said. Russia, a non-OPEC DoC country, produced 9.13 million b/d of crude in June, about 114,000 b/d lower than production in the previous month, according to the report.
The oil-producers group expects non-DoC liquid supply to grow by 1.2 million b/d this year, unchanged from its previous assessment. Canada, Brazil, and the US are expected to be the “main growth drivers,” OPEC said.
The DoC comprises the core 12 OPEC member countries, along with Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, and Sudan. Together, these countries form the group, also commonly known as OPEC+.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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