OPEC maintains oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) still thinks global oil demand will grow by 1.3 million b/d in both 2025 and 2026.

IMAGE: OPEC logo. Getty Images

Global oil consumption is expected to average 105 million b/d this year, which is largely unchanged from OPEC's estimate a month ago. Of this, 45.76 million b/d will be used by OECD countries, which would be about 10,000 b/d more than last year.

Total world oil demand is expected to be bolstered by strong air travel demand and healthy road mobility, industrial work, construction and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries, OPEC said.

“Similarly, capacity additions and petrochemical margins in non-OECD countries – mostly in China and the Middle East – are expected to contribute to oil demand growth.”

OPEC has lowered its demand growth expectation for non-OECD countries by around 1.2 million b/d, to 59.2 million b/d this year. It thinks this demand growth will mostly be driven by China, but also by other Asian countries like India, and by the Middle East and Latin America.

Oil demand growth in 2026 is expected to remain steady with 2025, and be driven by transportation fuels including gasoline, jet kerosene and diesel. Global oil consumption in 2026 is expected to average 106.3 million b/d, OPEC said.

OPEC has revised the demand growth forecast for its crude up by about 100,000 b/d, to 42.6 million b/d in 2025, and to 42.9 million b/d in 2026.

Supply forecasts

Total crude oil production by OPEC+ members averaged 40.92 million b/d last month, about 106,000 b/d lower than in March.

Oil production by OPEC+’s de-facto leader Saudi Arabia, increased by 49,000 b/d on the month to 9.01 million b/d in April. Production in Russia increased by 12,000 b/d to about 9 million b/d last month.

Output in Iran and Kazakhstan fell by 30,000 b/d and 41,000 b/d, respectively, OPEC said.

OPEC+'s liquid fuels supply is expected to expand by about 800,000 b/d this year, to average 54 million b/d.

“Growth is set to be driven by the US, Brazil, Canada and Argentina,” OPEC said.

The OPEC+ coalition comprises the core 12 OPEC member countries, along with Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia and Sudan.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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