OPEC reduces oil demand growth forecast again

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reduced its global oil demand growth projection for 2026 to about 200,000 b/d, around 200,000 b/d lower than its previous estimate.

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OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast, marking a sixth consecutive downward revision, as relentless Middle East hostilities continue to reshape global energy consumption patterns.

OPEC sees global oil demand to reach about 105.72 million b/d in 2026, including about 46.12 million b/d from OECD economies, it said in its October oil market report.

OPEC has forecast oil demand from non-OECD countries to average around 59.60 million b/d this year – about 100,000 b/d lower than its previous projection. 

“Overall, OECD oil demand is forecast to ease by about 0.2 mb/d in 2026 [200,000 b/d], while non-OECD oil demand is forecast to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, y-o-y [400,000 b/d year-on-year],” OPEC said.

Global oil consumption in 2027 is expected to grow by 2.6 million b/d, to average 108.28 million b/d – slightly higher than OPEC’s September projection.

Demand for OPEC+ crude is forecast to average 42.1 million b/d this year – about 100,000 b/d lower than last month’s projection. The Saudi Arabia-led coalition expects demand for OPEC+ crude to reach 43.9 million b/d next year.

Supply estimates

Total crude oil production by OPEC+ members averaged 39.07 million b/d last month, about 900,000 b/d higher than in August.

Saudi Arabia and Iraq ramped up oil production by 744,000 b/d and 386,000 b/d last month, to about 8 million b/d and 3.9 million b/d, respectively.

OPEC+ member Kazakhstan hiked production by 22,000 b/d last month, to about 1.9 million b/d.

Meanwhile, Iran and Kuwait slashed production by 99,000 b/d and 140,000 b/d last month, to about 2 million b/d and 1.8 million b/d, respectively.

OPEC+ leading producer Russia cut production by 38,000 b/d to about 8.6 million b/d, as the country’s energy production and refining facilities continued to come under Ukrainian drone strikes.

The Vienna-headquartered coalition sees non-OPEC production to grow by 600,000 b/d, with output expected to average around 54.8 million b/d this year – matching its previous estimate.

“The main liquids production growth drivers are expected to be Brazil, the US, Canada and Argentina,” it said.

The OPEC+ coalition comprise of the core 12 OPEC member countries, along with Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia and Sudan.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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