OPEC revises oil demand growth forecast down to 1.6 million b/d for 2024
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reduced its world oil demand growth forecast to 1.6 million b/d, about 210,000 b/d lower than its previous month's projection.
PHOTO: Blue crude oil barrels. Getty Images
Total oil consumption in 2024 is expected to average 103.8 million b/d, OPEC said.
Oil demand in the OECD group of developed countries is expected to grow by around 100,000 b/d to reach 45.7 million b/d this year, the oil-producers body said in its latest monthly oil market report (MOMR).
Demand growth in non-OECD countries is projected to be around 1.5 million b/d to reach 58.06 million b/d in 2024, the coalition said, “driven by China and supported by Other Asia, India, the Middle East and Latin America.”
OPEC sees global oil demand growth at 900,000 b/d in 2025, with total consumption reaching about 105.27 million b/d, noting a decline of 600,000 b/d from its previous estimate. “OECD demand is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, [100,000 b/d year-on-year] in 2025, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to expand by 1.3 mb/d [1.3 million b/d],” the Saudi Arabia-led group said.
Demand for crude produced by the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) is revised down by 300,000 b/d and 400,000 b/d from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 42.4 million b/d and 42.7 million b/d in 2024 and 2025 respectively.
Supply estimates
The 12 core OPEC members produced an average of 26.66 million b/d of crude oil in November, about 104,000 b/d higher than October’s production levels. Crude oil output mainly increased in Libya, Nigeria, and Iran, while production in Iraq, Venezuela, and Kuwait decreased, the Vienna-headquartered group said.
Crude oil output in Libya surged by 141,000 b/d last month to about 1.23 million b/d, OPEC said. The hike in Libya’s oil production added extra barrels to the group's production in November.
Crude oil production in Iraq, the group’s second-largest producer, declined by 45,000 b/d to 4.04 million b/d in November. The country's output in October was 89,000 b/d higher than its designated quota of 4 million b/d, according to the OPEC report.
Meanwhile, crude oil production from non-OPEC countries which include members of the OPEC+ alliance or participants in the DoC, grew by 219,000 b/d to 14.01 million b/d in November.
Crude oil output primarily increased in Malaysia and Kazakhstan, OPEC said. Russia, the largest non-OPEC DoC country, produced 8.9 million b/d of crude in November, down by about 7,000 b/d from the previous month, according to the report.
Crude oil production by the countries in the broader DoC increased by 32,000 b/d in November compared with the previous month, averaging about 40.67 million b/d, OPEC said.
The DoC comprises the core 12 OPEC member countries, along with Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, and Sudan. Together, these countries form the group, also commonly known as OPEC+.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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