OPEC slashes oil demand growth forecast again
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has cut its global oil demand growth projection for 2026 to about 1.0 million b/d – around 200,000 b/d lower than its previous estimate.
IMAGE: OPEC logo. Getty Images
OPEC sees global oil demand to reach about 106.13 million b/d in 2026, including about 46.01 million b/d from OECD economies – about 50,000 b/d lower than its May projection.
OPEC has forecast oil demand from non-OECD countries to average around 60.12 million b/d this year – about 15,000 b/d lower than its previous projection.
In the non-OECD region, oil demand is expected to be driven by consumption in China, India and other Asian countries, “further supported by Africa and Latin America.”
Global oil consumption in 2027 is expected to grow by 1.73 million b/d, to average 107.86 million b/d – slightly lower than OPEC’s previous projection.
OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast, marking a second consecutive downward revision as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to reshape energy consumption patterns.
OPEC sees demand for its crude to average 42.5 million b/d this year – about 200,000 b/d lower than last month’s projection. The Saudi Arabia-led coalition expects demand for its crude to reach 43.5 million b/d next year.
This adjustment reflects heightened market uncertainty and the economic strain caused by persistent geopolitical instability in the Middle East region.
Supply estimates
Total crude oil production by OPEC+ members averaged 33.13 million b/d last month, about 190,000 b/d lower than in April, OPEC said.
Oil production in Iran declined by a massive 546,000 b/d in May to about 2.3 million b/d. The decline in production came amid the ongoing hostilities in the region, with airstrikes directly targeting the country’s highly valued energy assets.
Russia, OPEC+’s second-largest producer, cut production by 9,000 b/d last month to about 9 million b/d as the country’s energy production and refining facilities continue to be targeted by Ukrainian missiles and drones.
Meanwhile, oil production OPEC’s de-facto leader Saudi Arabia increased by 157,000 b/d in May to 6.9 million b/d. Iraq also ramped up production by 75,000 b/d to about 1.5 million b/d.
In the UAE – a recently departed core-OPEC member – production increased by 87,000 b/d to about 2.1 million b/d, OPEC said.
The Vienna-headquartered coalition sees non-OPEC production to grow by 600,000 b/d, with output expected to average around 54.8 million b/d this year – matching its previous estimate.
“The main drivers of growth in liquids production are expected to be Brazil, the US, Canada, and Argentina,” it said.
The OPEC+ coalition comprise of the core 12 OPEC member countries, along with Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia and Sudan.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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