OPEC slashes oil demand growth forecast again

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reduced its global oil demand growth projection for 2026 to about 600,000 b/d, around 200,000 b/d lower than its previous estimate.

IMAGE: OPEC logo. Getty Images

OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast, marking a fourth consecutive downward revision, as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to reshape energy consumption patterns.

OPEC sees global oil demand to reach about 105.74 million b/d in 2026, including about 45.91 million b/d from OECD economies – about 200,000 b/d lower than its June projection.

OPEC has forecast oil demand from non-OECD countries to average around 59.82 million b/d this year – about 130,000 b/d lower than its previous projection. 

“Overall, oil demand in the OECD is projected to ease by about 40 tb/d in 2026 [40,000 b/d], while non-OECD oil demand is expected to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y [600,000 b/d year-on-year],” OPEC said.

Global oil consumption in 2027 is expected to grow by 2.2 million b/d, to average 107.90 million b/d – slightly higher than OPEC’s previous projection.

OPEC sees demand for its crude to average 42.1 million b/d this year – about 200,000 b/d lower than last month’s projection. The Saudi Arabia-led coalition expects demand for its crude to reach 43.6 million b/d next year.

This adjustment mirrors amplified market volatility and economic pressure driven by continuous geopolitical turmoil across the Middle East.

Supply estimates

Total crude oil production by OPEC+ members averaged 37.66 million b/d last month, about 1.42 million b/d higher than in June, OPEC said.

Oil production in Iraq increased by 665,000 b/d to about 2.6 million b/d in July, OPEC said.

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait also ramped up oil production by 590,000 b/d and 393,000 b/d last month, to about 7.36 million b/d and 1.8 million b/d, respectively.

OPEC+ member Kazakhstan cut production by 223,000 b/d last month, to about 1.67 million b/d, as the country’s energy production and refining facilities continued to come under Ukrainian drone strikes.

In the UAE, a recently departed core-OPEC member, production decreased by 30,000 b/d, to about 3.8 million b/d in July, OPEC said.

The Vienna-headquartered coalition sees non-OPEC production to grow by 600,000 b/d, with output expected to average around 54.8 million b/d this year – matching its previous estimate.

“The main drivers of growth in liquids production are expected to be Brazil, the US, Canada, and Argentina,” it said.

The OPEC+ coalition comprise of the core 12 OPEC member countries, along with Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia and Sudan.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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