OPEC trims oil demand growth forecast to 1.8 million b/d for 2024
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reduced its world oil demand growth forecast to 1.8 million b/d, about 107,000 b/d lower than its previous month's projection.
PHOTO: Oil barrels. Getty Images
Total oil consumption in 2024 is expected to average 104 million b/d, OPEC said.
Oil demand in the OECD group of developed countries is expected to grow by around 200,000 b/d to reach 45.8 million b/d this year, the oil-producers body said in its latest monthly oil market report (MOMR).
“Upward revisions are made for OECD Americas, OECD Europe and several regions in the non-OECD,” OPEC said.
Demand growth in non-OECD countries is projected to be around 1.7 million b/d to reach 58.2 million b/d in 2024, the coalition said. Meanwhile, “China, India, Other Asia, Africa and Other Eurasia necessitated downward revisions [in demand growth projection],” it added.
OPEC sees global oil demand growth at 1.5 million b/d in 2025, with total consumption reaching about 105.6 million b/d, noting a decline of 103,000 b/d from its previous estimate. “The OECD demand is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, [100,000 b/d year-on-year] while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to expand by 1.4 mb/d [1.4 million b/d],” the Saudi Arabia-led group said.
Demand for crude produced by the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) is revised down by 100,000 b/d from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 42.7 million b/d in 2024.
Supply estimates
The 12 core OPEC members produced an average of 26.53 million b/d of crude oil in October, about 466,000 b/d higher than September’s production levels. Crude oil output mainly increased in Libya, Nigeria and Congo, while production in Iran, Iraq and Kuwait decreased, the Vienna-headquartered group said.
Crude oil output in Libya surged by 556,000 b/d last month to about 1.10 million b/d, OPEC said. The hike in Libya’s oil production added extra barrels to the group's production in October.
Crude oil production in Iraq, the group’s second-largest producer, declined by 66,000 b/d to 4.07 million b/d in October. The country's output in September was 133,000 b/d higher than its designated quota of 4 million b/d, according to the OPEC report.
Meanwhile, crude oil production from non-OPEC countries which include members of the OPEC+ alliance or participants in the DoC, fell by 251,000 b/d to 13.80 million b/d in October.
Crude oil output primarily increased in Malaysia and Bahrain and declined in Kazakhstan, OPEC said. Russia, a non-OPEC DoC country, produced 9.01 million b/d of crude in October, inching up by about 9,000 b/d from the previous month, according to the report.
The DoC comprises the core 12 OPEC member countries, along with Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, and Sudan. Together, these countries form the group, also commonly known as OPEC+.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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