Venezuela’s oil revival poised to reshape global supply
Industry consultant Enverus has projected that Venezuela will increase oil production about 500,000 b/d to hit 1.5 million b/d by 2035.
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The forecast comes amid heightened uncertainty after US forces recently detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Oil analysts say Venezuela’s political shift could pave the way for an easing of US sanctions, potentially allowing more crude to return to the global market.
“Sanctions relief will redirect Venezuelan crude toward the U.S. Gulf Coast, increasing competition among heavy barrels,” Al Salazar, head of macro research at Enverus, said in a statement.
Even if sanctions are lifted more quickly than expected, Enverus projects a global oil oversupply of 1–2 million b/d in the first half of 2026, with “limited incremental volumes” from Venezuela.
“Despite recent political changes and potential sanctions relief, EIR [Enverus Intelligence Research] finds that near-term impacts on Brent prices will be muted,” it said.
This is largely due to existing market oversupply and China’s strategic stockpiling last year, the research consultant added.
Under Enverus’ high-case assumptions, Venezuela could lift crude output to around 3 million b/d within the next decade, implying a threefold increase from current levels.
Venezuela is a founding member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). It controls almost 17% of global oil reserves, or 303 billion bbls.
Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump said the US would assume control of Venezuela and reaffirmed that Washington’s embargo on the country's oil would stay in force.
“Long-term global oil balances are projected to face a deficit of 2 million barrels per day [2 million b/d] by 2035, creating space for Venezuela’s incremental supply without materially impacting prices,” Enverus said.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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