5% target for zero-emission fuels insufficient to meet IMO's 2030 ambition – ClassNK

The shipping sector will need to consume at least 25% of zero-emission bunker fuels or 29% of B100 biofuel to achieve IMO’s indicative checkpoint for 2030, finds a new ClassNK report.

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The IMO's indicative checkpoints call for 20-30% reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030, and 70-80% reductions by 2040. Based on classification society ClassNK's projections, the shipping industry should limit GHG emissions to 585 million mt of carbon dioxide equivalent (mtCO2e) by 2030 and 798 million mtCO2e by 2040.

In addition, the IMO has proposed that 5-10% of total bunker consumption by 2030 should be zero- or near-zero-emission fuels.

According to ClassNK, this roughly translates to the use of 21 million mt/year of e-methanol or 23 million mt/year of green ammonia. These fuels are evaluated because they are produced from green hydrogen using renewable electricity, resulting in a zero-carbon footprint on a well-to-wake basis.

However, only 5% of zero-emission fuels are likely to result in 731 million mtCO2e of GHG emissions by 2030, which is well above the "allowable" emissions threshold, ClassNK estimates.

“In other words, achieving the zero-emission fuel introduction target for 2030 alone makes it difficult to achieve the indicative checkpoint for 2030,” ClassNK explained.

To meet IMO's interim targets, around 25% and 72% of total bunker consumption must be comprised of zero-emission fuels by 2030 and 2040, respectively. ClassNK equates this quantity to approximately 106 million mt/year of e-methanol or 114 million mt/year of green ammonia by 2030.

However, the current production of methanol and ammonia stands at 106 million mt/year and 183 million mt/year, respectively, of which less than 1% is e-methanol and green ammonia. This will make it nearly impossible to meet ClassNK's projected 25% target by 2030, causing shipping to fall short of IMO's interim target.

As an alternative, the Japanese classification society has suggested using B100 biodiesel, which is 100% biofuel component without any fossil fuel blend, to reduce 20-30% well-to-wake GHG emissions by 2030.

“Biodiesel can also play a role in achieving the indicative checkpoint for 2030. Biodiesel is a drop-in fuel that can be used in conventional fuel main engines, and a GHG reduction effect has been recognized by the IMO for biodiesel that meets certain conditions,” the report explained.

This will require an estimated 29% or 66 million mt/year of biodiesel as part of the marine fuel mix by 2030. Current productions stand at 42 million mt/year with most of the capacity earmarked for the automobile sector. This capacity will need to be scaled up and diverted to meet shipping demand.

“The time remaining until 2030, which is the immediate target and checkpoint, is extremely limited,” the report said.

To meet the 2040 target, ClassNK estimates that the shipping sector will need to consume around 311 million mt/year of e-methanol or 333 million mt/year of green ammonia by 2040. Additionally, ClassNK predicts LNG should make up at least 10% of the global bunker fuel mix by 2030 and 2040 to meet the guided targets.

“Achieving the zero-emission goal as outlined in the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy necessitates a collective and urgent effort from all stakeholders, including international organizations, national governments, the maritime industry, the energy sector, shippers, and the financial sector,” it concluded.

By Konica Bhatt

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