Ammonia to dominate marine fuel transition by 2050 - DNV
DNV envisages synthetic fuels and ammonia to overtake biofuels as the preferred fuel for green shipping by 2050.
PHOTO: Model of an ammonia bunker vessel. PaxOcean
In its latest Energy Transition Outlook, DNV projects oil demand from international shipping to peak by 2026 and decline towards 2050 as biofuel, green ammonia, e-kerosene and other low- and zero-carbon fuels replace fossil fuels.
DNV calls hydrogen “ineffective and expensive” compared with direct electrification.
It predicts that hydrogen will cater to 5% of global energy demand in 2050, which is only one-third of the demand needed to reach net zero. During the early 2030s, hydrogen will be scaled up in the manufacturing sector, and supply of hydrogen derivatives like ammonia and e-methanol are foreseen to grow in the late 2030s.
Combustion engines are expected to continue to dominate as the global fleet's energy converter of choice in a path to net zero emissions. But marine fuel cells could also increasingly be integrated into power systems in the future to boost efficiency and lower fuel consumption.
Hydrogen-based fuels will rule the roost
Because there are limitations to electrifying offshore operations, hydrogen-based fuels like ammonia and e-fuels will dominate the bunker fuel mix by 2050, the report forecasts.
Blue ammonia is typically ammonia produced with steam methane reforming of natural gas, but with carbon capture. DNV says it will emerge as a possible fuel of choice since the process of capturing carbon dioxide can be done during ammonia production is relatively simple and inexpensive while. Production of green ammonia, on the other hand, will require a massive increase in access to renewable energy sources.
Ammonia's high toxicity and significantly higher production costs, however, remain serious concerns. The report finds that toxic zones and venting masts can be used to solve key risk around toxicity. And large-scale transport from regions with low production costs to global bunkering hubs can help rein in overall production cost.
DNV predicts future ammonia uptake will be:
- 43 petajoules (PJ) or 0.3% of the shipping fuel mix in 2030
- 1,100 PJ or 8% of the shipping fuel mix in 2040
- 4,500 PJ or 35% of the shipping fuel mix in 2050
And e-methanol uptake at:
- 360 PJ or 2% of the shipping fuel mix in 2030
- 1,400 PJ or 10% of the shipping fuel mix in 2040
- 1,800 PJ or 14% of the shipping fuel mix in 2050
One petajoule is 1,015 joules (1 million billion) or 278 gigawatt-hours.
Uptake of ammonia is predicted to be slower than e-methanol until 2040, and then likely accelerate towards 2050.
Recent ammonia bunker developments
Some shipping firms are already investing or mulling investments into ammonia engines, while engine manufacturers have been busy developing and testing their engine prototypes.
Japanese shipping company Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha has received approval in principle from ClassNK for its prototype ammonia-fuelled vessel (ABV).
Singapore-based Hong Lam Marine and PaxOcean Engineering have conceptualied a and ammonia bunker delivery vessel, while a global bunker supplier Fratelli Cosulich has placed an order for an ammonia bunker tanker from Nantong CIMC Sinopacific Offshore & Engineering.
The South Korean shipbuilder Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME) plans to launch ammonia-powered container ships by 2025. The company has already received three approvals in principle for ammonia-fueled vessels.
On the supply side, Norwegian ammonia producer Yara has set its sights on developing the world's first clean ammonia bunker and loading station, saying Hystar's proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyser technology will enable it to produce green ammonia by 2024 and deliver it as fuel.
By Konica Bhatt
Please get in touch with comments or additional info to news@engine.online
