Brent rises as traders assess potential risks to Russian supply

The front-month ICE Brent contract has gained by $0.75/bbl on the day, to trade at $64.73/bbl at 09.00 GMT.

IMAGE: Getty Images

Upward pressure:

Brent futures have risen as market participants weigh the risk of disruptions to Russian oil flows.

Russian oil company Lukoil has declared force majeure at its 400,000 b/d West Qurna-2 oilfield in Iraq following sanctions by the US and the UK.

“There's still plenty of uncertainty over Russian crude oil flows due to sanctions,” remarked two analysts from ING Bank.

Last month, Washington sanctioned Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, along with 34 of their subsidiaries. Both companies produce around 50% of the country’s total oil output, according to analysts.

Brent has gained on “mounting evidence that the latest Russia sanctions are disrupting supply,” VANDA Insights’ founder Vandana Hari remarked.

Downward pressure:

Oil market analysts are awaiting the release of monthly market reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Last month, the IEA warned that a record oil glut could form in 2026, pushing Brent futures lower.

Concerns of a supply glut in the oil market this year and into early 2026 has put some downward pressure on Brent’s price in recent days.

Notably, OPEC+ producers have agreed to collectively increase their production by another 137,000 b/d in December.

“The outlook for oil is bearish,” ING Bank’s analysts said.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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