Brent rises on renewed Gulf tensions

The front-month ICE Brent contract has gained by $0.43/bbl on the day, to trade at $107.32/bbl at 09.00 GMT.

IMAGE: Oil pumpjack. Getty Images

Upward pressure:

Brent crude’s price has continued to move higher as risks of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East remain elevated.

“Ten weeks on from the start of the Iran war and energy markets remain in limbo,” analysts from ING Bank noted.

Senior US and Chinese officials have reportedly agreed that no country should ​be allowed to collect shipping tolls to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the US state department told Reuters.

This development has added upward pressure on oil prices as market analysts interpret it as a sign that Washington and Beijing are seeking common ground in efforts to pressure Tehran into relinquishing control over the strategic waterway.

“If Hormuz remains shut, the second quarter of 2026 will see the largest quarterly crude inventory drawdown in history at 6.5mb/d [6.5 million b/d],” ANZ Bank’s senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes said.

Downward pressure:

While there are no significant downward pressures on Brent’s price today, market participants will closely watch the highly anticipated meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping during Trump's state visit to Beijing later this week.

The visit is expected to include talks focused on the evolving situation in the Middle East, while also helping pave the way for broader future cooperation.

Market analysts expect China to “use its influence” to persuade Iran closer towards a ceasefire deal, two analysts from ING Bank noted. “Clearly, this is easier said than done,” they added.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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