Brent surpasses $80/bbl for the first time in 2025

The front-month ICE Brent contract has gained $3.67/bbl on the day from Friday, to trade at $81.51/bbl at 09.00 GMT.

PHOTO: An oil pumpjack pictured at dusk. Getty Images

Upward pressure:

Brent’s price has surpassed the $80/bbl mark amid growing concerns about tight crude supplies in the global oil market.

The surge in Brent's price comes after the US government targeted Russia’s energy sector with increased sanctions on its major oil and tanker companies including Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas.

These sanctions “could affect tankers carrying approximately 1.5 million barrels per day [1.5 million b/d] of Russian crude—primarily destined for key Asian importers,” analysts from Saxo Bank said.

Brent futures gained more support amid expectations that President-elect Donald Trump will intensify oil sanctions on Iran. “Donald Trump has warned of maximum pressure on Iran, which could see additional sanctions introduced,” ANZ Bank’s senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes remarked.

Downward pressure:

A key risk to Brent's price rise lies in the possibility of supply exceeding demand, particularly as OPEC+ prepares to bring additional oil barrels back into the market.

The Saudi Arabia-led coalition has already postponed its plan to unwind the 2.2 million b/d of voluntary cuts from 1 October 2024 to 1 April 2025, with room open for further delays.

Moreover, non-OPEC supply, primarily from the US, Brazil, Canada and Guyana, is expected to grow by 1.5 million b/d in 2025, according to the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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