East of Suez Fuel Availability Outlook 6 Oct

Bunker demand muted in Zhoushan

Bunker availability tight across several Japanese ports

Supply tight across grades in Fujairah

IMAGE: Large cargo ships docked to load and unload goods at Khor Fakkan port, UAE. Getty Images

Singapore and Malaysia

Singapore’s bunker market remains tight despite “average demand”, with recommended lead times for VLSFO holding at around 10-15 days, unchanged from the previous week. Most suppliers continue to operate with low stocks, while delays in cargo arrivals due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East have further strained availability, according to a Singapore-based source.

HSFO supply is similarly constrained, with advised lead times of 10-15 days, broadly unchanged week on week. LSMGO availability, however, remains relatively healthy, although lead times have edged up to 5-7 days from around five days previously.

At Port Klang, Malaysia, bunker availability remains constrained across several grades. Prompt VLSFO supply is particularly tight, while LSMGO availability remains limited and HSFO continues to face supply pressure.

East Asia

Bunker fuel availability remains tight in Zhoushan despite muted demand, with several suppliers reporting low stock levels. VLSFO lead times have reduced to around 12 days from 14 days last week, while LSMGO lead times have increased to 12 days from 10 days. HSFO lead times have also edged up to about 15 days from 14 days.

Supply conditions remain mixed across other Chinese ports. Dalian and Qingdao have sufficient VLSFO and LSMGO stocks, although HSFO remains tight in Qingdao. In Tianjin, supply is tight across all three major grades, while VLSFO and HSFO availability is limited in Shanghai. LSMGO supply, however, remains relatively stable there.

Southern Chinese ports are also experiencing supply constraints. Suppliers in Fuzhou and Xiamen are short of VLSFO and LSMGO, while availability of both grades remains restricted in Yangpu and Guangzhou.

Bunkering activity is subdued at several Chinese ports amid the National Day Golden Week holiday from 1-7 October, according to a China-based source. Deliveries against existing orders are continuing as usual. At most ports, the last day to place stem orders for delivery during the holiday was 28 September.

Hong Kong's bunker market remains largely unchanged, with suppliers continuing to advise lead times of around seven days for the major grades.

In Taiwan, VLSFO and LSMGO can be delivered within two days at Keelung, Hualien, Taichung and Kaohsiung, broadly unchanged from last week.

Bunker fuel availability has improved in South Korea as demand has remained subdued in the past few days due to a series of public holidays, including National Foundation Day on 3 October and its substitute holiday on 5 October. Bunker demand is expected to remain muted on 9 October for Hangeul Day.

At southern ports such as Busan, Ulsan, Masan, Onsan, Yeosu and Kwangyang, lead times for all major grades have reduced to around 4-6 days from 5-11 days a week earlier. Western ports, including Incheon, Daesan, Dangjin, Pyeongtaek and Taean, have seen a similar improvement, with VLSFO, LSMGO and HSFO lead times shortening to 4-6 days, compared with 5-11 days previously.

However, bad weather conditions could disrupt bunker operations in the coming days. Adverse weather is likely to affect bunkering at Busan and Ulsan on 6-7 October, while Yeosu and Daesan could face disruptions on 6 October.

Japan's bunker market remains particularly constrained. Ongoing refinery maintenance and the prioritisation of domestic power generation have significantly reduced cargo allocations for the bonded bunker market, leaving overall supply extremely tight, according to a Japan-based trader.

Japanese bunker prices remain at elevated levels compared with regional alternatives. Tokyo's VLSFO is currently priced at premiums of $61/mt and $37/mt over Singapore and Zhoushan, respectively.

Available supply is being fully absorbed by term nominations, leaving virtually no spot availability or supplier offers for HSFO and VLSFO, the trader said.

VLSFO, LSMGO and HSFO availability has tightened at several Japanese ports, including Tokyo, Chiba, Kawasaki, Nagoya, Yokkaichi, Osaka, Kobe, Mizushima, Tokuyama and Oita. Supplies of all three grades are expected to remain very limited in October because of refinery suspensions for maintenance. Kashima is also experiencing tight availability of VLSFO and HSFO.

Indonesia remains an exception, with bunker fuel availability generally healthy. Suppliers in Jakarta, Surabaya, Balikpapan and Cigading are typically advising VLSFO lead times of just 2-3 days.

Oceania

Bunker fuel supply in Western Australia remains stable, with VLSFO readily available at both Kwinana and Fremantle. Suppliers at the two ports are advising lead times of around seven days. Each port is served by a single supplier, with all bunker deliveries conducted by barge.

Supply conditions are more varied along Australia’s east coast. Port Kembla has normal VLSFO availability, with deliveries possible by truck or pipeline. Sydney has adequate stocks of VLSFO and LSMGO, while HSFO availability is relatively tighter, with suppliers generally requiring around seven days’ notice.

Further north, Brisbane and Gladstone have ample VLSFO and LSMGO supplies, with lead times of roughly one week. Melbourne and Geelong also have comfortable VLSFO availability, although both ports rely on a single bunker barge, keeping lead times at around seven days. HSFO availability has tightened further in Melbourne and Brisbane.

One supplier is offering all three major grades — VLSFO, LSMGO and HSFO — at Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, with shorter lead times of approximately five days.

In Western Australia, pipeline bunkering at Dampier Cargo Wharf (DCW) has resumed after being suspended in late July, according to a source. However, the approaching cyclone season could pose a fresh risk to bunker operations. The season runs from November to April and could affect fuel availability at ports across Australia, the source added.

Across the Tasman Sea, New Zealand’s bunker market remains broadly stable. VLSFO is readily available at Tauranga and Auckland, with suppliers quoting lead times of around four days. At Marsden Point, vessels can receive both VLSFO and LSMGO directly through the pipeline.

Weather remains the key operational risk for New Zealand’s bunker market. Wellington and ports across the South Island are particularly susceptible to delivery delays when adverse weather disrupts marine operations.

South Asia

Bunker supply remains broadly stable at major Indian ports, with suppliers advising VLSFO lead times of around 3–4 days at Mumbai, Cochin, Paradip, Visakhapatnam, Kakinada, Haldia and New Mangalore, largely unchanged from the previous week. 

LSMGO availability remains tight across most ports, while HSFO is available on an enquiry basis at Sikka, Vadinar, Kandla and Tuna, according to an India-based source.

Middle East

“From our current market view, the Middle East remains quite volatile, but the situation is not uniform across all ports,” a Middle East-based source said.

“Fujairah remains the most sensitive market, with availability and pricing moving more aggressively, while Saudi ports are generally more workable but need to be checked case by case,” the source added.

Bunker fuel availability in Fujairah remains severely constrained as US-Iran tensions continue to disrupt vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a regional source. Supplies of all major grades are extremely limited, while fuel oil arrivals have dropped sharply amid heightened uncertainty across the region.

Nearby Khor Fakkan is facing similar supply pressure, with availability of all major grades remaining tight.

In Saudi Arabia, VLSFO and LSMGO supplies at Jeddah remain stable. However, adverse weather could cause intermittent disruptions to bunkering operations at Jeddah and Yanbu between 6-8 October.

Oman is currently in a relatively comfortable supply position. LSMGO availability across the country’s main ports remains good, with port congestion and nomination timing posing greater considerations than product availability.

LSMGO supply is stable at key Omani ports, including Salalah, Muscat, Duqm and Sohar. One supplier recommends lead times of 2-3 days for normal stems, while advising buyers with larger stems or urgent requirements to nominate as early as possible to secure the best available option.

At Qatar’s Ras Laffan, availability of both VLSFO and LSMGO remains restricted.

Further west, bunker inventories at Port Suez in Egypt have fallen to critically low levels across all three conventional fuel grades. Djibouti is also experiencing limited availability of the major grades.

By Tuhin Roy

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