Fuel Switch Snapshot: B30-LSMGO beats LSMGO on EU-EU voyages

B100 and B30-LSMGO outcompete LSMGO on EU-EU voyages

Rotterdam’s B30-VLSFO makes sense on EU-nonEU voyages

LBM still the most attractive in the EU

All bunker prices described in the text below have been adjusted for calorific contents to make them VLSFO-equivalent. They have estimated EU-EU voyage compliance costs included for Rotterdam, and nonEU-EU compliance costs included for Singapore. These account for EU ETS costs and FuelEU Maritime penalties, and the average price of compliance surpluses we have picked up from the FuelEU pooling market from the past week. 

Rotterdam’s B30-LSMGO cost is at $845/mt when the fuel is consumed between two EU ports. That’s $133/mt lower than pure LSMGO, but $322/mt more expensive than B100. All three prices are VLSFO-equivalents and comparable with one another, and the fuels are compliant with the 0.10% sulphur limit in European Emission Control Areas (ECAs).

Ships bunkering B30-VLSFO in Rotterdam and burning it on a voyage to a nonEU port will have overall costs of $580/mt, which is $30/mt less than with VLSFO for the same type of voyage.

Singapore’s B30-VLSFO is not quite as cost-effective at $648/mt on EU-nonEU voyages, which is $8/mt more than its pure VLSFO.  

Rotterdam’s B100 discounts to HSFO, VLSFO and LSMGO have shrunk to $216-455/mt.

B100 is at steep $219-443/mt discounts to LNG, depending on LNG engine methane slips, while at $93-324/mt premiums over 0 gCO2e/MJ LBM, again depending on methane slips.

LBM remains the lowest-cost fuel for EU-EU voyages when the FuelEU Maritime compliance surplus generated from burning LBM is sold or transferred to other vessels. Compliance surplus values for LBM in Otto medium speed (Otto MS) engines are estimated at $929/mt, and $1,088/mt for diesel slow speed (diesel SS) engines.

EU ETS costs have dropped with emission allowance prices. HSFO, VLSFO and LSMGO are now estimated to cost $276-284/mt for ships to burn them between EU ports and pay for emission allowances. That compares to $247-311/mt for LNG, depending on the methane slip of the LNG engine.

Biofuels have much lower EU ETS costs. Running on B100 is estimated to costs just $4/mt, and 0 gCO2e/MJ LBM only $7/mt on ships with low-methane-slip engines. For LNG-fuelled vessels with high methane slips, the estimated cost is $78/mt.

Liquid fuels

Rotterdam’s B100 (POMEME) price has moved $36/mt higher in the past week, despite seemingly lower biofuel wholesale costs and greater potential Dutch rebates.

The POMEME ARA barge price assessed by Prima Markets has fallen by $6/mt in the past week. The estimated value of Dutch ZRE A tickets generated from selling B100 has gone up by $41/mtB100 on the week to $555/mtB100.

Rotterdam's conventional fuel prices have dipped. VLSFO has taken the biggest hit with a $60/mt drop, followed by HSFO’s $46/mt and LSMGO’s $29/mt.

Singapore’s B100 (UCOME) price has gained $9/mt on the week, while HSFO, VLSFO and LSMGO grades have come off by $14-18/mt. B100 remains at wide premiums of $281-485/mt over the conventional fuel grades and LNG for voyages between Singapore and EU ports.

Liquid gases

Rotterdam’s LNG has dropped by $13/mt on the week for vessels with Otto MS engines sailing between EU ports. That is largely a result of a $73/mt lower EU ETS cost than a week ago, which has more than countered a $60/mt rise in the LNG bunker price. These vessels have high methane slips, which are penalised heavily in the 2026 version of the EU ETS.

For vessels with diesel SS engines, LNG has gained $4/mt on the week. With low methane slip engines, these vessels have faced $58/mt lower estimated EU ETS costs than a week earlier. This EU ETS cost drop has not been enough to counter the $60/mt LNG bunker price drop.

Without any EU regulation or calorific content adjustments, Rotterdam’s LNG bunker price has leaped $73/mt higher on the week. Colder European weather has firmed up gas demand for power generation, and bunker delivery premiums have increased sharply to top it up.

Singapore’s LNG bunker price has made a smaller $19/mt gain, drawing some strength from the steep European gas price rise and additional support from a cold spell across Northeast Asia, according to JOGMEC.

Prices for LNG consumed on voyages between Singapore and EU ports have fallen $13-21/mt lower on the week, depending on engine methane slip.

By Erik Hoffmann

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