Fuel Switch Snapshot: Gas supply risks lift Rotterdam's LNG and LBM

B30-LSMGO swings to $37/mt discount to LNG (Otto MS)

Singapore LNG (diesel SS) discount to LSMGO widens

ZRE A tickets surge on aggressive compliance buying

All bunker prices described in the text below have been adjusted for calorific content to make them VLSFO-equivalent. They have estimated EU-EU voyage compliance costs included for Rotterdam, and nonEU-EU compliance costs included for Singapore. These account for EU ETS costs and FuelEU Maritime penalties, and the average price of compliance surpluses we have picked up from the FuelEU pooling market over the past week.

Rotterdam's B30-LSMGO has swung from a $90/mt premium over LNG burnt in Otto medium speed (Otto MS) engines to a $37/mt discount, as LNG has gained $150/mt over the past week against the blend's $24/mt.

Liquefied biomethane's (LBM) premiums over HSFO in Rotterdam have widened by $105-107/mt to $348-487/mt depending on engine type, and over VLSFO by $90-92/mt to $233-372/mt.

LBM's discounts to LSMGO have narrowed by $6-8/mt to $261-400/mt. Its premiums over B100 have widened by $84-86/mt to $271-411/mt.

Rotterdam's LNG premiums over VLSFO have widened by $95-97/mt to $356-492/mt depending on engine type, and LNG's discounts to LSMGO have narrowed by $11-13/mt to $141-277/mt.

In Singapore, LNG's premiums over VLSFO have narrowed by $1-2/mt to $255-323/mt, and its discounts to LSMGO have widened by $85-86/mt to $88-155/mt. The wider discount is for vessels with diesel slow speed (diesel SS) engines.

B100's premium over HSFO in Rotterdam has widened by $21/mt to $76/mt while its discount to VLSFO has narrowed by $6/mt to $39/mt. Its discount to LSMGO has widened by $78/mt to $672/mt.

Singapore's B100 has widened its premium over VLSFO by $14/mt to $280/mt and its discount to LSMGO by $70/mt to $130/mt.

ENGINE-assessed FuelEU Maritime pooling values have eased by $1/mt for both B100 and LBM, the smaller credits adding to each fuel's gains, while the OceanScore FuelEU pooling index has held at €118.90/mtCO2e ($138/mtCO2e).

Liquid fuels

Rotterdam's conventional fuel prices have gained $38-137/mt over the past week, with LSMGO up the most and its benchmark at the highest level in at least four years.

B100 has gained $59/mt and B30-VLSFO $64/mt.

Dutch ZRE A tickets have moved up by €21/mtCO2e ($24/mtCO2e) to €200/mtCO2e ($232/mtCO2e) over the past week. Compliance buyers rather than speculators have driven the increase, Prima Markets analyst Ulrich Arnheiter said.

Conventional bunker fuel availability in the ARA is tight for prompt deliveries, with lead times of 5-7 days advised for most grades, a trader said.

Singapore's conventional fuel prices have gained $49-133/mt, again with LSMGO up the most, and B100 has gained $63/mt.

Supply in Singapore has remained constrained despite subdued demand, with VLSFO lead times of 12-15 days against 9-16 days a week earlier.

Front-month ICE Brent futures have rallied $10.53/bbl ($77/mt) higher to $108.72/bbl ($797/mt), lifted by vessel attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia halting flows through its East-West Pipeline. Dec26 EUA prices have risen by $2.99/mtCO2e to $102.47/mtCO2e.

Liquid gases

Rotterdam's LNG prices have gained $148-150/mt depending on engine type over the past week, and the port's LBM prices $143-145/mt, tracking a sharp rise in the front-month Dutch TTF gas contract.

How long the Strait of Hormuz stays closed remains the single most important supply-side uncertainty, IEA gas analyst Greg Molnár said.

Rotterdam's LBM discounts to LNG have widened by $5/mt to $119-124/mt depending on engine type.

Singapore's LNG prices have gained $46-47/mt depending on engine type, tracking the front-month NYMEX Japan/Korea Marker.

LNG importers continue to seek cargoes with no resolution of the Middle East conflict in sight, ANZ Bank senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes said.

By Erik Hoffmann

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