Nuclear’s case for containerships hinges on the IMO’s net-zero rules, UCL finds
Without the Net-Zero Framework in force, a nuclear containership cannot compete on cost with a conventional vessel, even at the lowest estimated reactor cost.
IMAGE: Radioactive barrels on racks. Getty Images
Researchers at the UCL Energy Institute modelled a 14,500-19,999 TEU boxship fitted with a small modular reactor against two benchmarks, a conventional fuel oil vessel and an ammonia dual-fuel one, running the comparison out to 2050.
The reactor ship was tested at two speeds and at both ends of the published reactor cost range, with and without the NZF in force.
The study found that a reactor ship makes its money from policy, not fuel. The NZF caps the greenhouse gas fuel intensity of the energy a ship uses and tightens that cap over time.
Ships under the cap earn surplus units and ships over it, buy them. A reactor has no emissions at the funnel, so a nuclear ship sits far below the cap from the day it enters service and can sell units to the rest of the fleet.
That income is not enough on its own, because the cost of the reactor swings the result more than anything else in the model. Estimates in the published research range from $2,600-12,400/kWe, a spread of nearly five times.
At the low end, which assumes reactors built in series with costs already brought down, the nuclear ship at 14.85 knots was the cheapest of the six vessels modelled from its introduction in 2040, provided the NZF is in force.
At the high end, which represents a first-of-a-kind reactor, it was not the cheapest in any scenario the study ran.
The income from surplus units also fades over time, peaking in a ship’s first years in service and shrinking as the limits tighten towards 2050 and the gap the ship is paid for narrows.
On that basis, the study argues the best chance of breaking in for nuclear comes early rather than late.
"Nuclear is not a reason to weaken maritime climate policy. It is one of the technologies that depends on it," said Tristan Smith, professor of energy and transport at UCL.
The absence of an IMO liability convention for nuclear-powered vessels has been flagged as one of the main obstacles to uptake, and the Nuclear Energy Maritime Organization is working with the International Atomic Energy Agency and the IMO on a regulatory framework.
Meanwhile the technology has pushed ahead, with ABS approving KRISO’s molten salt reactor boxship concept in July and Core Power agreeing with the US Maritime Administration in August to target 2028 for the first US-flagged nuclear newbuilds.
By Gautamee Hazarika
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