Fuel Switch Snapshot: LNG drops to greater discounts to LSMGO

LSMGO prices surge on fresh Russia sanctions

LNG prices drop with weakening TTF and JKM

B100 discounts to HSFO and VLSFO narrow

All bunker prices mentioned below have been adjusted for calorific contents to make them VLSFO-equivalent. They have estimated EU-EU voyage compliance costs included for Rotterdam, and non-EU-EU compliance costs included for Singapore. These account for EU ETS costs and FuelEU Maritime penalties, and our estimated compliance surplus values for FuelEU pooling. Rotterdam's B100 and LBM prices also factor in Dutch HBE rebates for advanced liquid and gaseous biofuels sold in the Netherlands.

Rotterdam’s B100 discounts to HSFO and VLSFO have narrowed to $138/mt and $151/mt, respectively. Prices for all three grades have fallen in the past week, but the fuel oil grades have fallen by more than B100.

LSMGO has jumped $38/mt higher and moved to a $371/mt premium over B100.

Singapore’s B100 premiums over HSFO and LSMGO have narrowed to $534/mt and $462/mt, respectively. B100’s premium over LSMGO has slumped $41/mt lower to $245/mt amid a $21/mt LSMGO gain.

Rotterdam and Singapore’s LNG prices are both down by $5-6/mt on the week, depending on engine type and methane slip.

Rotterdam’s LNG price has held at a steady premium of $46/mt over HSFO when the LNG is consumed in an Otto medium speed engine (Otto MS). Its premium over VLSFO has come down to $25/mt, while its discount to LSMGO has widened to $187/mt.

Singapore’s LNG premium over VLSFO has been trimmed to $45/mt, while its premium over HSFO has increased to $117/mt – both for vessels with Otto MS engines on voyages between Singapore and an EU port. The port’s LNG discount to LSMGO has widened to $172/mt.

We estimate that Rotterdam’s liquefied biomethane (LBM) can generate FuelEU Maritime pooling values of $667/mt when the LBM is consumed in an Otto MS engine, and $809/mt in a diesel slow speed (diesel SS) engine. This is for LBM with a greenhouse gas intensity of 0 gCO2e/MJ. With these pooling values, LBM can cost $145/mt less than LNG for a vessel with an Otto MS engine sailing between two EU ports, and $149/mt less with a diesel SS engine.

Liquid fuels

LSMGO prices have been lifted along with diesel by Western sanctions on Russia. LSMGO prices are up $38/mt in Rotterdam and $21/mt in Singapore.

Russia exports around 1 million b/d of diesel and the US, UK and EU’s latest rounds of sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet and third-party companies buying Russian oil have stoked concerns in the market and pushed prices up.

HSFO and VLSFO prices, meanwhile, have come further off recent multi-month and multi-year highs after being pulled down by weakening front-month ICE Brent crude values in the past week.

B100 prices have also had headwinds in the past week. Weaker POMEME and UCOME barge prices in the ARA, and lower UCOME cargo prices in Singapore and China have added downward pressure.

Liquid gases

LNG prices are down by $15/mt in Rotterdam and $10-11/mt in Singapore.

A $0.40/MMBtu ($21/mt) drop in the front-month Dutch TTF gas price and a $0.21/MMBtu ($11/mt) drop in the front-month JKM price have weighed on the delivered LNG bunker prices.

By Erik Hoffmann

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