Fuel Switch Snapshot: Pooling value slump lifts biofuel prices against conventionals

Singapore's LNG (Otto MS) flips to $42/mt premium over LSMGO

B100 swings to $75/mt discount to Singapore's LNG (diesel SS)

Rotterdam's B100 flips to $3/mt premium over VLSFO

All bunker prices described in the text below have been adjusted for calorific content to make them VLSFO-equivalent. They have estimated EU-EU voyage compliance costs included for Rotterdam, and nonEU-EU compliance costs included for Singapore. These account for EU ETS costs and FuelEU Maritime penalties, and the average price of compliance surpluses we have picked up from the FuelEU pooling market over the past week.

Singapore's LNG burnt in Otto medium speed (Otto MS) engines has flipped from an $88/mt discount to LSMGO to a $42/mt premium, as the port's LNG prices have gained while LSMGO has fallen $27/mt.

LNG burnt in diesel slow speed (diesel SS) engines has not flipped, and its discount to LSMGO has narrowed by $134/mt to $21/mt.

B100 in Singapore has swung from a $25/mt premium over LNG (diesel SS) to a $75/mt discount.

LNG's premiums over VLSFO in the port have widened by $134-138/mt to $394-457/mt depending on engine type.

Rotterdam's LNG has moved the other way. Its premiums over VLSFO have narrowed by $64-73/mt to $293-419/mt depending on engine type, while its discounts to LSMGO have widened by $76-85/mt to $226-353/mt.

Liquefied biomethane's (LBM) premiums over HSFO in Rotterdam have narrowed by $14-23/mt to $334-464/mt depending on engine type, and over VLSFO by $13-22/mt to $220-350/mt. Its discounts to LSMGO have widened by $25-34/mt to $295-425/mt.

LBM's premiums over B100 have narrowed by $55-64/mt to $217-347/mt, as the potential pooling value of LBM has fallen further than B100's.

Rotterdam's B100 price has flipped from a $39/mt discount to VLSFO to a $3/mt premium. B100's potential pooling value has fallen $40/mt, while the price of VLSFO, which generates no compliance surplus, has fallen $34/mt.

B100 has also swung from a $21/mt discount to B30-VLSFO to a $35/mt premium, with the blend down $49/mt over the past week.

In Singapore, B100's premium over VLSFO has widened by $39/mt to $319/mt, and its discount to LSMGO has narrowed by $34/mt to $96/mt.

OceanScore's FuelEU pooling index has registered a €10.30/mtCO2e ($13/mtCO2e) weekly drop to €108.60/mtCO2e ($124/mtCO2e).

Liquid fuels

Rotterdam's conventional prices have fallen by $22-34/mt over the past week, with VLSFO down the most. B100 has gained $8/mt and B30-VLSFO has fallen $49/mt.

Dutch ZRE A tickets have fallen by €10/mtCO2e ($14/mtCO2e) to €190/mtCO2e ($218/mtCO2e) over the past week.

Prompt fuel availability has been tight in the ARA, with buyers advised lead times of 5-7 days to secure stems at competitive prices, a trader said.

Singapore's conventional prices have fallen by $27-49/mt. HSFO has shed the most, while B100 has gained $8/mt.

Bunker availability in Singapore has been tight despite muted demand. Recommended VLSFO lead times have widened to 13-16 days from 12-15 days a week earlier. HSFO lead times have extended to 10-19 days from 10-12 days, while LSMGO has improved to 6-8 days from 7-10 days, a Singapore-based source said.

Most suppliers have had low stocks, and delayed cargo arrivals have tightened availability further.

Fuel oil and gasoil prices have been under pressure from a $7.97/bbl ($59/mt) drop in front-month ICE Brent futures, which are now at $100.75/bbl ($738/mt).

A $2.89/mtCO2e drop in Dec26 EUA prices, to $99.58/mtCO2e, has provided only some relief to conventional fuels consumed on EU-linked voyages.

Liquid gases

Rotterdam's LNG prices have fallen by $98-107/mt depending on engine type over the past week, and the port's LBM prices by $47-56/mt.

LBM's discounts to LNG in the port have narrowed by $51/mt to $69-73/mt depending on engine type.

Singapore's LNG prices have gained $103-107/mt depending on engine type.

By Erik Hoffmann

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