Global oil demand growth to ease to 1.2 million b/d in 2024 – IEA
The Paris-based energy agency expects global oil demand growth to decline from 2.3 million b/d in 2023 to 1.2 million b/d in 2024, due to “macroeconomic headwinds, tighter efficiency standards and an expanding EV fleet.”
PHOTO: Entrance of the IEA headquarters in Paris. Getty Images
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global oil demand to grow by 1.2 million b/d in 2024, an increase of 100,000 b/d from its previous monthly Oil Market Report (OMR). The oil demand is set to grow by 1.2 million b/d this year, but it is still lower than the 2.3 million b/d growth in 2023.
The agency predicts that China will lead oil demand growth in 2024, “with its expanding petrochemical sector gaining an ever-larger share.”
The IEA expects global oil supply to grow by 1.5 million b/d to a record high of 103.5 million b/d in 2024, with the US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada, producing record-high volumes. Non-OPEC+ production will lead world oil output this year, according to the IEA.
Rising geopolitical instability in the Middle East has kept the oil market “on edge” at the start of this year, the IEA notes. The potential risk to global oil flow through key trade chokepoints in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal adds a layer of complexity to the energy market landscape.
According to IEA, fresh production cuts by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will “tip the oil market into a small deficit at the start of the year.” However, strong non-OPEC+ production could lead to a surplus in the second quarter of 2024, it added.
“Barring significant disruptions to oil flows, the market looks reasonably well supplied in 2024,” the IEA said in its OMR.
The agency anticipates global refinery crude throughputs to average 83.3 million b/d in 2024. “However, the disparity between OECD and non-OECD runs will continue to widen, as new capacity starts in the Middle East, Africa, and China,” it said.
By Aparupa Mazumder
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