IEA picks ammonia as winner in net zero shipping scenario

Ammonia bunker demand could grow to make up 45% of total bunker demand by 2050 while keeping global shipping on a path towards net zero CO2 emissions, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA),

PHOTO: 3D model of NYK Line's ammonia bunker vessel. NYK Line

In its latest World Energy Outlook, the IEA projects that the shipping sector's CO2 emissions will decline from 840 million mt today to 110 million mt in 2050, largely due to a change in the marine fuel mix.

Aside from ammonia, biofuels and hydrogen are each estimated to meet 20% shares of bunker fuel demand by 2050, with hydrogen being used for short- to medium-range shipping in particular.

Electric propulsion - from batteries or fuel cells - will also mainly be used by short-distance ships and cruise ferries. 

The vast majority of bunker fuel consumed today is oil. The IEA projects that oil's share will drop to only 15% of the total by 2050 under a net-zero scenario.

It is possible to eliminate oil from the marine fuel mix completely, but the IEA points out that retrofitting ships to run on low-emission hydrogen-based fuels is expensive and that coordination between fuel suppliers, ports and shipbuilders is critical.

It says that many ships built to run on oil-based fuels will likely continue to do so as they "have a lifetime of 20 to 35 years, which inhibits the adoption of new fuel-efficient technologies."

The Paris-based energy organisation also highlights potential energy efficiency gains through measures such as wind kites and rotor sails, saying these will remain relevant since they can help ships to reduce fuel consumption.

By Konica Bhatt

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