IEA sees higher global oil demand growth in 2026

Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) now expects global oil demand to grow by 930,000 b/d in 2026 - about 70,000 b/d higher than its previous estimate.

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The IEA said global oil demand growth is set to exceed the 850,000 b/d increase recorded in 2025 but stopped short of providing an average forecast for the scale of the rise.

The growth in oil demand will be driven by non-OECD countries, according to the IEA. Even so, the agency expects global oil demand to remain well below oil production levels.

“Combined with the hefty surplus that has built up in storage tanks and at sea over the past year, this would leave the market with a significant buffer well in excess of demand,” the IEA said.

Supply forecast

In December last year, global oil supply decreased by 350,000 b/d from November levels, to about 107.4 million b/d, and by 1.6 million b/d from September’s all-time high, the IEA noted in its monthly Oil Market Report (OMR).

“Lower output from Kazakhstan and a number of Middle Eastern OPEC producers was partly offset by a sharp rebound in Russian production,” the energy agency noted.

OPEC’s de-facto leader Saudi Arabia has led the rise in the group’s supply following the unwinding of production cuts, the IEA has pointed out.

However, supply disruption concerns remain a market-moving factor – specially around major OPEC producers like Iran and Venezuela.

Iranian crude loadings fell by around 350,000 b/d from their October peak to about 1.6 million b/d across November and December, leading to a build-up of unsold volumes offshore, according to the IEA.

Meanwhile, Venezuelan crude exports dropped sharply, sliding from roughly 880,000 b/d in December to around 300,000 b/d in early January, as a US blockade disrupted tanker movements to and from the country, the agency said.

The energy agency now projects global oil supply to grow by 2.5 million b/d to average 108.7 million b/d in 2026. Oil supply around the world will continue to surge “if OPEC+ stays the course with its current production policy,” the agency said.

Crude oil supply from non-OPEC+ countries including Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina, are expected to account for about 1.3 million b/d in 2026.

By Aparupa Mazumder

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