Iran’s Hormuz closure deepens ceasefire uncertainty
Iran has once again shut the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli strikes on Lebanon, casting serious doubt on the already fragile two-week Middle East ceasefire.
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Israel carried out its most intense bombardment of Lebanon yet on Wednesday, resulting in hundreds of fatalities and prompting threats of retaliation from Iran, according to Reuters.
“Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut over first day of ceasefire. Iran says ceasefire deal violated as Israel sustains attacks on Lebanon,” remarked VANDA Insights’ founder Vandana Hari.
Crude futures recovered part of the previous day’s losses, “as reports emerged that the Strait remained closed,” ANZ Bank’s senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes noted.
“We see the ceasefire as being quite fragile. And from monitoring what’s happening in the Strait of Hormuz, theirs is a lot of uncertainty around the insurance that vessels could pass without being compromised or attacked. And we don’t see flows resuming anytime quickly before these reassurances are made,” said Kpler’s head of Middle East energy Amena Bakr.
Iran’s Position
“The deep historical distrust we hold toward the United States stems from its repeated violations of all forms of commitments, a pattern that has regrettably been repeated once again,” Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, wrote on social media platform X.
According to Ghalibaf, Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon are among three elements of Iran’s 10-point ceasefire proposal that have been breached.
“The world sees the massacres in Lebanon. The ball is in the U.S. court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on X.
US Signals Readiness for Talks
US Vice President JD Vance is set to lead an American delegation for talks with Iran beginning 11 April in Islamabad, Pakistan, according to media reports.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump initially described Iran’s 10-point proposal as “workable” and potentially capable of ending the conflict. However, he later stated that US military assets would remain positioned around Iran and warned that Washington would resume “shooting” if Tehran fails to fully comply with the agreement.
Within just a day, the ceasefire already appears tenuous, with both sides presenting conflicting interpretations of its key terms and the broader prospects for a lasting peace agreement.
By Tuhin Roy
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