MEPC 84: Island nations threaten more stringent fallback if net-zero draft is revised

A coalition of Pacific island nations has warned it will push for a more stringent version of the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework (NZF) if the approved draft is reopened for substantial revisions at MEPC 84.

IMAGE: Annual GFI reduction factors (in percentages) for the target annual GFI benchmarked against a 2008 baseline of 93.30 gCO2e/MJ. MEPC 84 submission by Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, Palau, Tuvalu and Vanuatu

Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, Palau, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu and Vanuatu have urged the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) to adopt the NZF as approved at MEPC 83 in April 2025.

In a submission ahead of MEPC 84 next week, the group of countries warned that any attempt to reopen the text for substantial amendments could jeopardise the framework.

“… attempting to extract or alter the core components of the IMO Net-Zero Framework will not improve the likelihood of the group reaching agreement; it will cause the entire structure to collapse,” the submission notes.

This position is backed with a “contingency” proposal which sets a significantly more stringent version as a fallback option.

This version will be tabled if the IMO member states push for any major changes to the technical or economic measures of the approved NZF, island states warn.

The contingency proposal is co-sponsored by Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, Palau, Tuvalu and Vanuatu, but not the Solomon Islands.

Nuclear fallback option

The approved NZF introduces a two-tier GHG fuel intensity (GFI) standard requiring ships to progressively reduce well-to-wake GHG emissions from 2028 onwards, benchmarked against a 2008 baseline of 93.30 grams of CO2-equivalent per megajoule (gCO2e/MJ).

Reduction targets comprise a base target and a direct compliance target, ranging from 4-17% in 2028 and tightening to 30-43% by 2035.

Ships that miss the direct compliance target pay $100/mtCO2e in Tier 1 remedial units, while those that also miss the base target pay $380/mtCO2e in Tier 2. Ships that overcomply can earn surplus units to trade with or bank for future use.

The Pacific island states propose keeping base targets unchanged but shifting the implementation timeline by one year, starting at 6% in 2029 instead of 4% in 2028.

The direct compliance target, on the other hand, should be set at 100% from 2029 through 2035, the submission recommends.

IMAGE: Draft amendments to MARPOL Annex VI on the IMO Net-Zero Framework. IMO

It proposes raising the Tier 1 compliance price to $300/mtCO2e, three times the approved Tier 1 price of $100/mtCO2e, and to purchase Tier 2 remedial units at $380/mtCO2e for emissions exceeding the base target.

The contingency proposal eliminates the surplus unit mechanism entirely.

Ships that overcomply will not receive surplus units. All non-compliance will have to be settled through direct payments into the IMO Net-Zero Fund and shipowners will have no mechanism to manage compliance through trading, according to the submission.

The group has warned that if the draft is reopened for major revisions, "there would be no recourse but to revert" to its earlier demand for a flat GHG levy of $150/mtCO2e.

“The bridge we have built in the form of the NZF through years of compromise and evidence is still standing. Let us cross it together by adopting it as agreed without any further dilution,” Vanuatu’s minister for climate change Ralph Regenvanu wrote in an op-ed on Al Jazeera.

By Konica Bhatt

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