OPEC+ holds firm on output as Brent drops 14% this year

Eight OPEC+ members have agreed to keep their oil production unchanged for the first quarter of 2026, the group announced after its 40th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting on Sunday.

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The decision comes as concerns over a potential supply glut continue to weigh on front-month ICE Brent futures.

Brent has fallen by about $9.66/bbl, or 14%, so far in 2025, settling at $62.38/bbl on Friday.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman have “reiterated that the 1.65 million barrels per day [1.6 million b/d] may be returned in part or in full, subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner,” the group said in its statement.

OPEC+ members also endorsed a new method for assessing maximum sustainable production capacity (MSC), a technical benchmark that will guide the setting of production baselines from 2027.

The Vienna-based group and its allies agreed to continue upholding the 2016 Declaration of Cooperation, and to maintain the production limits established at the 38th ministerial meeting.

It stressed the need for “full conformity”, including adherence to voluntary production adjustments and any compensation requirements.

OPEC+ will next meet for its 41st ministerial session on 7 June 2026.

By Konica Bhatt

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