OPEC maintains world oil demand growth forecast for 2022, 2023

OPEC has maintained its global oil demand growth forecast for this year and 2023, expecting geopolitical improvements and Covid-19 containment in China to support growth.

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It expects global oil demand to increase by 2.5 million b/d this year, which is unchanged from its previous forecast last month. And it sees oil demand rising by 2.2 million b/d in 2023, which is also unchanged from its earlier projection.

This demand growth is split between 1.4 million b/d to 46.2 million b/d in OECD countries, and 1.2 million b/d to 53.4 million b/d in non-OECD countries.

Supply projections

OPEC has kept its forecast for non-OPEC liquids supply for this year unchanged compared to its previous assessment. Supply is estimated to grow by 1.9 million b/d to an average of 65.6 million b/d. It forecasts non-OPEC liquids production to rise by 1.5 million b/d next year, unchanged from last month.

OPEC’s own production of crude oil averaged 28.83 million b/d in November, lower by 744,000 b/d on the month, the report says. Crude oil output increased mainly in Nigeria and Angola, while production declined across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq.

It expects Russian liquid fuels output to increase by 160,000 b/d, to 11 million b/d this year, a downward revision of 26,000 b/d from the previous month. Next year’s forecast remains unchanged from its previous assessment, as it expects Russian liquids' output to decline by 850,000 b/d in 2023, to 10.1 million b/d amid "high uncertainty.”

OPEC forecasts US liquid oil production to grow by 1.2 million b/d on the year, to 20.1 million b/d in 2023 - the same as it forecast last month.

By Konica Bhatt

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