Target top 10 regional bunker ports to meet 60% of green ammonia bunker demand - Oxford
Green ammonia will mostly be produced near the equator and shipped to regions with high bunker fuel demand, a recently published Oxford University study predicts.
MAP: Ports that can serve as import, production and export hubs for green ammonia. Oxford University Research
Green ammonia production clusters are expected to be mainly located in northwest Australia, Chile, California, northwest Africa and the Arabian Peninsula by 2050, with Australia dominating green ammonia production and exports.
These findings are in line with studies indicating that the Global South can produce marine fuels with low- and zero-emission potential at a lower cost than developed countries as they tend to have access to more land areas and renewable energy sources.
The Oxford researchers predict that shipping sector’s green ammonia demand will be 602-749 million mt/year by 2050. Most of the demand will come from “prominent countries that depend on (long-distance) maritime transport," the authors argue. This includes the US, Singapore, Japan, South Korea, China, Brazil, India, Australia, South Africa and Malaysia.
“Targeting the top 10 fuel demanding ports globally could meet 21% of global fuel demand, but regional targeting strategies could meet >60% of fuel demand by targeting the top 10 regional fuel demanding ports only,” the study found.
The study authors simplified its approach to estimating global demand by assuming that “all vessels leaving a port will get their bunkering fuel from the port they just visited before starting their journey to the next port of call.”
Australia will dominate green ammonia supply in the East of Suez region, they found. The Australian ports of Darwin, Hedland and Gladstone have been identified as potential green ammonia export terminals and bunkering points.
Chile will be the primary green ammonia supplier in South America, and California is expected to meet bunker demand along the North American west coast.
Chile's Valparaiso, Argentina's Zona Comun anchorage and the US port of Los Angeles have been identified as potential green shipping corridor locations where terminals for export and bunkering of green ammonia can be developed.
Other green shipping corridor candidates are the ports of Salalah in Oman, Fujairah in the UAE, Port Suez in Egypt, Saldanha Bay in South Africa, Lüderitz in Namibia, Casablanca and Agadir in Morocco and Haldia and Kolkata in India.
Among these areas, Zona Comun, Los Angeles, Fujairah and Port Suez are currently already prominent bunkering spots for conventionally fuelled ships.
Africa is expected to meet part of Europe's green ammonia demand, while the southern Arabian Peninsula is likely to meet demand from the Middle East and south Asia. India and China will also produce some, but mostly rely on imports.
The study estimates that $2 trillion will be needed to develop global green ammonia supply chains by 2050, most of which will be used for developing ammonia bunkering and export infrastructure in ports.
By Konica Bhatt
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