LNG Bunker Snapshot: Rotterdam price surges on Norwegian outages and colder forecasts

Singapore-ARA spread narrows to $89/mt

TTF rises on Norwegian supply disruptions, colder forecasts and Middle East tensions

JKM increases on Middle East supply risks and colder European winter forecasts

Weekly changes in LNG bunker prices:

• ARA up by $121/mt to $1,776/mt
• Singapore up by $96/mt to $1,865/mt
• Baltics up by $120/mt to $1,879/mt

ARA

Rotterdam’s LNG bunker price rose for the fourth consecutive week, climbing by $121/mt week-on-week to $1,776/mt.

The front-month Dutch TTF Natural Gas contract, Europe’s benchmark gas price, increased by $2.38/MMBtu ($124/mt) over the week, to $31.87/MMBtu ($1,657/mt).

TTF price strengthened amid supply disruptions at Norway’s Troll and Asgard gas fields, forecasts of lower temperatures across Europe and renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, according to the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC).

“European gas prices also remain extremely sensitive to developments in the Persian Gulf, with LNG flows increasingly likely to be largely absent from the market for at least much of the Northern Hemisphere winter,” two analysts from ING Bank noted.

“Colder weather, low stocks, unplanned outages in Norway are all adding upward pressure on prices, but the single most important driver is still geopolitics and the risk of renewed military tensions in the Middle East,” said International Energy Agency (IEA) gas analyst Greg Molnár.

EU-wide underground gas storage stood at 74.6% on 23 October, up from 74.3% the previous weekend but 10.6 percentage points below the level recorded during the same period last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Escalating tensions in the Middle East and extremely low gas storage levels are driving prices for the coming months and 2027 futures significantly higher, according to Mind Energy.

Singapore

Singapore’s LNG bunker price rose by $96/mt week-on-week to $1,865/mt, a smaller increase than Rotterdam’s. This narrowed Singapore’s premium over the ARA region to $89/mt, from $114/mt a week earlier.

Singapore’s LNG bunker price typically tracks the front-month NYMEX Japan/Korea Marker (JKM), which climbed by $1.49/MMBtu to $31.42/MMBtu ($1,634/mt). A widening bunker premium over JKM also supported Singapore’s price, increasing by $0.34/MMBtu to $4.45/MMBtu ($231/mt).

JKM prices rose amid growing concerns over a tightening supply-demand balance, driven by supply risks linked to tensions in the Middle East and forecasts of colder-than-normal winter temperatures in Europe, according to the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC).

“Fears of an escalation in the Middle East raised concerns of extended supply disruptions of natural gas, lifting prices in … Asia to a multi-year high,” said ANZ Bank senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes.

Asia’s LNG prices are nearing a four-year high, according to Bloomberg News Energy Asia team leader Stephen Stapczynski.

LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted. The route carried 20% of global LNG supply before the war, while fresh tanker attacks have heightened concerns over how quickly shipments can return to normal. Demand from India and China could also intensify competition between Asia and Europe for available LNG supplies, Stapczynski explained.

JKM prices also received support from stronger prompt demand in China, South Korea and India, alongside growing concerns about securing winter supplies amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty, JOGMEC added.

“North Asia LNG prices also hit a four-year high, as Asian buyers become increasingly concerned about shortages over the coming months,” Hynes echoed.

In other LNG bunker news, Antwerp-Bruges bunkered 74,000 mt of LNG in the third quarter, down 3% from 77,000 mt in the second quarter.

Finnish shipping company Wasaline will take 42 GWh of liquefied biomethane (LBM) per year under an agreement, with deliveries starting in January 2028.

Rotterdam’s LBM bunker sales more than tripled from the previous quarter to 11,000 mt in the third quarter, their highest since the port began reporting biofuel volumes in 2021, against just 400 mt a year earlier.

Korean shipping company HMM has ordered eight 13,000 TEU LNG-capable container ships from HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Samho for about KRW 2 trillion ($1.5 billion).

By Tuhin Roy

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